机器人还是人工？
Any other job (build your own)
A person doing the job vs A robot doing the job
人工 · 每年US$92,465Person
机器人 · 每年US$56,213Buy
回收期23 个月
成本交叉年份已经Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)
On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.
美国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation
用你自己的数字计算
Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.
结果
| 方案 | 每月 | 每年 | Per unit (unit) | 前期投入 | 回收期 | Break-even utilisation | 5-year NPV vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 人工 Person 比较基准 | US$7,705 | US$92,465 | US$3.50 | — | — | — | — |
| 机器人 Buy Robots needed: 2 |
US$4,684 | US$56,213 | US$2.13 | US$120,000 | 23 个月 | 29% Utilisation 63% |
US$170,382 |
| 机器人 Lease Robots needed: 2 |
US$5,382 | US$64,582 | US$2.45 | US$20,000 | 7.5 个月 | 37% Utilisation 63% |
US$135,899 |
| 机器人 RaaS Robots needed: 2 |
US$5,382 | US$64,582 | US$2.45 | US$20,000 | 7.5 个月 | 37% Utilisation 63% |
US$135,899 |
What moves the answer most
Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.
Cost per unit to 2035
Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork 模型估算，并非事实。
成本交叉年份: 已经
What the spreadsheet misses
- 安全
- Dull, dirty and dangerous tasks are where robots most often pay off beyond cost.
- 质量
- Robots repeat; people adapt.
- 灵活性
- The more the job changes week to week, the more a person is worth.
- Edge cases
- List the exceptions before you buy; they are usually the expensive part.
- Customer experience
- Ask customers, not vendors.
- Jobs and redeployment
- Plan redeployment and training first; it decides whether staff help or hinder.
- 法规
- Machinery, privacy and sector rules vary by country.
相关内容
本页来源
说明和来源为英文；以英文版为准。
- Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
- Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
- Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
- Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
- Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
- 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
- Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
- Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
- Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
- Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
- Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013