whirrwork

Robot or Human? · Track record

Track record

Every published projection is logged here, append-only, with a date to check it against reality. We score ourselves, including when we are wrong.

Log: rvh_projections.jsonl (210 predictions across 1 model version) · Scores: rvh_checks.jsonl (0)

Model versions

  • v1.0.0, published 2026-10-25: 210 predictions

Next checks: prices and wages

Robot prices are checked in real terms (deflated by US CPI) against Whirrwork's own append-only price observations for the same series. A prediction scores as a hit if the observed value falls inside the slow–fast range.

PredictionMadeBaseRangeCheck afterResult
Commercial floor cleaning: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$6071758542–620102027-10-25open
Commercial floor cleaning: US raas fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$17241693–17402027-10-25open
Commercial floor cleaning: US lease fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$25382492–25622027-10-25open
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted): US raas fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$19711936–19902027-10-25open
Pallet moving: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$4354941989–444772027-10-25open
Wind turbine blade inspection: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$445438–4492027-10-25open
CNC / injection machine tending: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$4057539608–410682027-10-25open
US median hourly wage, SOC 37-2011 (Cleaner with a walk-behind autoscrubber), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$18.4818.22–18.752027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 53-7065 (Picker walking with a cart), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$18.7318.46–192027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 53-7051 (Forklift or pallet-truck operator), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$23.2922.96–23.632027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 49-9052 (Rope-access blade inspection), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$37.2936.75–37.822027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 53-7063 (Operator loading and unloading a machine), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$20.6820.39–20.982027-06-30open
Home lawn mowing: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$23462275–23852027-10-25open
Commercial mowing: US lease fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$17741742–17912027-10-25open
Pool cleaning: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$11241089–11422027-10-25open
Window and facade cleaning: US raas fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$37343676–37632027-10-25open
Window and facade cleaning: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$0.250.24–0.252027-10-25open
Roof inspection: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$272268–2742027-10-25open
Cell tower inspection: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$445438–4492027-10-25open
Solar farm inspection: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$44514382–44852027-10-25open
Crop spraying: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$3067429704–312222027-10-25open
Crop spraying: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$12.8612.66–12.962027-10-25open
Crop spraying: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$11.7211.54–11.812027-10-25open
Drone light show vs fireworks: US robot service price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$5192651124–523272027-10-25open
Restaurant food running: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$1403313530–143312027-10-25open
Restaurant food running: US raas fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$403396–4072027-10-25open
Hospital deliveries: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$104034100307–1062502027-10-25open
Hospital deliveries: US lease fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$17251694–17412027-10-25open
Welding: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$103122100663–1043762027-10-25open
End-of-line palletizing: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$9305690836–941872027-10-25open
Warehouse inventory counting: US raas fee one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$34623408–34882027-10-25open
Residential snow clearing: US robot purchase price one year on, in 2026 dollarsv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$71386920–72562027-10-25open
US median hourly wage, SOC 33-9032 (Security guard on patrol), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$19.0818.8–19.352027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011 (Lawn service (per visit)), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$19.6419.36–19.922027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 37-2019 (Rope-access or lift crew (contract)), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$22.0921.78–22.412027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 47-4011 (Inspector on a ladder), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$37.4836.94–38.012027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 45-2091 (Ground rig or crop duster (custom hire)), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$20.9320.63–21.242027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 00-0000 (Fireworks display (pyrotechnics crew)), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$25.5825.21–25.952027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 35-9011 (Food runner / busser), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$17.0516.81–17.32027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 31-1132 (Porter / orderly making runs), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$19.2118.94–19.492027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 51-4121 (Manual MIG welder), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$26.9726.58–27.352027-06-30open
US median hourly wage, SOC 53-7064 (Packer stacking cases by hand), BLS OEWS May 2026, nominalv1.0.0 · 2026-10-25$18.217.94–18.462027-06-30open

Crossover calls (base scenario)

Scored in 2030 and 2035 against observed prices and wages fed back through the same formulas.

JobCountryBaseRangeCheck
Commercial floor cleaningUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningGB20292028–20332030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningJPafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningCNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial floor cleaningMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)US20292028–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)DE20292028–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)GB20322029–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)JPafter 20352035–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)CNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)INafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)BRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)MXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Pallet movingUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Pallet movingDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Pallet movingGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Pallet movingJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Pallet movingCN20312029–after 20352030-12-31
Pallet movingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Pallet movingBRafter 20352032–after 20352030-12-31
Pallet movingMXafter 20352034–after 20352030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionCN20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionIN20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionBR20262026–20262030-12-31
Wind turbine blade inspectionMX20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingUS20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingDE20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingGB20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingJP20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingCN20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingBR20262026–20262030-12-31
CNC / injection machine tendingMX20262026–20262030-12-31
Security patrolUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Security patrolDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Security patrolGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Security patrolJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Security patrolCNafter 20352032–after 20352030-12-31
Security patrolINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Security patrolBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Security patrolMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Home lawn mowingUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Home lawn mowingDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Home lawn mowingGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Home lawn mowingJP20272027–20272030-12-31
Home lawn mowingCN20322029–after 20352030-12-31
Home lawn mowingINafter 20352032–after 20352030-12-31
Home lawn mowingBRafter 20352031–after 20352030-12-31
Home lawn mowingMXafter 20352031–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingUSafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingDEafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingGBafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingJPafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingCNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Commercial mowingMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Pool cleaningUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Pool cleaningDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Pool cleaningGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Pool cleaningJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Pool cleaningCN20262026–20262030-12-31
Pool cleaningIN20312029–after 20352030-12-31
Pool cleaningBR20272027–20302030-12-31
Pool cleaningMX20282027–20302030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningCN20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningIN20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningBR20262026–20262030-12-31
Window and facade cleaningMX20262026–20262030-12-31
Roof inspectionUSafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionDEafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionGBafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionJPafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionCNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Roof inspectionMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionCN20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionIN20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionBR20262026–20262030-12-31
Cell tower inspectionMX20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionCN20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionIN20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionBR20262026–20262030-12-31
Solar farm inspectionMX20262026–20262030-12-31
Crop sprayingUSafter 20352031–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingDEafter 20352031–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingGBafter 20352032–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingJPafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingCNafter 20352035–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Crop sprayingMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksUSafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksDEafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksGBafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksJPafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksCNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Drone light show vs fireworksMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Restaurant food runningUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Restaurant food runningDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Restaurant food runningGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Restaurant food runningJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Restaurant food runningCN20262026–20262030-12-31
Restaurant food runningINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Restaurant food runningBR20292028–20332030-12-31
Restaurant food runningMX20332030–after 20352030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesCN20332030–after 20352030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Hospital deliveriesMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
WeldingUS20262026–20262030-12-31
WeldingDE20262026–20262030-12-31
WeldingGB20262026–20262030-12-31
WeldingJPafter 20352033–after 20352030-12-31
WeldingCNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
WeldingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
WeldingBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
WeldingMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingUS20262026–20262030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingDE20262026–20262030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingGB20262026–20262030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingJP20262026–20262030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingCN20272027–20282030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingBRafter 20352035–after 20352030-12-31
End-of-line palletizingMXafter 20352035–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingUS20262026–20262030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingDE20262026–20262030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingGB20262026–20262030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingJP20262026–20262030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingCNafter 20352032–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Warehouse inventory countingMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingUSafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingDEafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingGBafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingJPafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingCNafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingINafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingBRafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31
Residential snow clearingMXafter 2035—–after 20352030-12-31

Backtests: how would these curves have done?

Too pessimistic on services. US custom drone spraying fell from $21 to $13 an acre between 2024 and 2025 (American Spray Drone Coalition). Our base case moves a robot service price a few percent a year; reality moved 38% in one year as new operators competed. Service prices can also bounce back when operators exit.

Too optimistic on finished robots. A UR5 cost $35,000 in 2015 (IEEE Spectrum); its successor lists at $39,083-$43,544 in 2026 (Automation Distribution). A 15% learning rate on the arm alone would have predicted a falling nominal price. It fell only in real terms. Roombas went from $199.95 to $449.99 and up (iRobot; iRobot US store), because the product changed.

About right on components. Battery packs fell from above $1,100 to $108 per kWh between 2010 and 2025 (BloombergNEF; BloombergNEF), consistent with roughly 20% per doubling.

Lesson we are building in: hardware learning curves work best for components; finished-robot prices and service prices need their own observed series, which is why every check above uses Whirrwork's price history rather than a curve.