whirrwork

Robot or Human?

Home lawn mowing

Lawn service (per visit) vs Wire-free robot mower

Whirrwork modelled estimates, not facts. Methodology · Track record

Human · Per year$1,505Lawn service
Robot · Per year$1,189Buy a robot mower
Payback33 months
Crossover yearnowBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper. The robot would sit idle most of the time; it pays off at higher volume or longer hours.

United States · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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Workload
Assumption

Mows per month in season (weekly).

Assumption

Hours per day the robot may run.

Assumption

Days per month.

Assumption

Mowing months per year; depends on climate.

People
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Prices
HomeGuide

Average per visit for a 1/8-1/4 acre yard ($30-$85).

Robot
Assumption

Mows completed per robot-hour for a quarter-acre yard (about 2 hours per full mow).

Mammotion US store

LUBA 3 AWD entry tier; larger tiers up to $3,299.

Zippy Lawnz (installer)

Professional installation up to 1 acre; DIY is $0.

Derived Smart Lawn NY (installer)

$199 a year (midpoint of $149-$249 care plans) as a share of the entry price.

Assumption

Useful life in years.

Assumption

Share of allowed hours the mower can work (rain, charging).

Assumption

Mows lost to faults or stuck robots.

Assumption

Edging and trimming the robot can't do, as a share of a service visit you still pay for.

Assumption

Your own time is not costed here (you would spend it anyway, or enjoy it).

Assumption

kWh per robot-hour.

Assumption

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Money
Assumption

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Assumption

Years in the NPV comparison.

Assumption

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Assumption

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Assumption

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Results

OptionPer monthPer yearPer unit (mow)UpfrontPaybackBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Human Lawn service Baseline $125$1,505$50.00— — — —
Robot Buy a robot mower $99.12$1,189$39.52$2,898 33 months 2%
Utilisation 3%
 $1,638

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a robot mower5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a robot mowerLawn servicelow value: 30 → -$504high value: 85 → $5,387Active months per yearlow value: 4 → -$657high value: 10 → $3,933Robot purchase pricelow value: 1500 → $2,844high value: 3299 → $431Work that stays humanlow value: 0 → $2,583high value: 0.35 → $378Useful life or contractlow value: 3 → $286high value: 8 → $2,242Maintenance per yearlow value: 0.04 → $2,062high value: 0.15 → $977Integration and setuplow value: 0 → $2,137high value: 799 → $1,338Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → $1,985high value: 0.12 → $1,227Work lost to failureslow value: 0 → $1,804high value: 0.1 → $1,251$1,6380low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/lawn-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork modelled estimates, not facts.

ChartHuman cost per unit (Base), Robot cost per unit (Base), Robot cost per unit (Robots fast), Robot cost per unit (Robots slow). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/lawn-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.$0.00$20.00$40.002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / mowscenario rangeHuman cost per unit (Base)Robot cost per unit (Base)Robot cost per unit (Robots fast)Robot cost per unit (Robots slow)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/lawn-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not…

Crossover year: now

What the spreadsheet misses

Safety
Blades plus children, pets and hedgehogs: pick a model with lift sensors and do not run it at night.
Quality
Frequent small cuts look tidy; edges still need trimming.
Flexibility
A service also blows, edges and spots problems.
Edge cases
Steep slopes, many separate patches and poor GPS/RTK signal break wire-free mowers.
Customer experience
You are the customer: no scheduling, no noise from big engines.
Jobs and redeployment
Small landscaping businesses lose the weekly mow but keep higher-skill work.
Regulation
Mostly none; some towns restrict night-time running.

Related

Sources on this page

  1. Lawn mowing cost: $30-$85 per visit for a 1/8 to 1/4 acre yard, about $50 on average HomeGuide, 2026
  2. Mammotion LUBA 3 AWD robot mower: $2,399-$3,299 by coverage tier Mammotion US store, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Robotic mower installation: up to 1 acre $499, over 1 acre $799 Zippy Lawnz (installer), 2026-10 · vendor
  4. Annual robotic mower care plans $149-$249 Smart Lawn NY (installer), 2026-10 · vendor
  5. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  6. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  7. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  8. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  9. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  10. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  11. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  12. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  13. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  14. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  15. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013