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ロボットか人か？

Home lawn mowing

Lawn service (per visit) vs Wire-free robot mower

Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。 方法論 · 予測の検証記録

人 · 年額$1,505Lawn service
ロボット · 年額$1,189Buy a robot mower
回収期間33 か月
逆転する年すでにBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper. The robot would sit idle most of the time; it pays off at higher volume or longer hours.

アメリカ合衆国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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作業量
仮定

Mows per month in season (weekly).

仮定

Hours per day the robot may run.

仮定

Days per month.

仮定

Mowing months per year; depends on climate.

人員
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

価格
HomeGuide

Average per visit for a 1/8-1/4 acre yard ($30-$85).

ロボット
仮定

Mows completed per robot-hour for a quarter-acre yard (about 2 hours per full mow).

Mammotion US store

LUBA 3 AWD entry tier; larger tiers up to $3,299.

Zippy Lawnz (installer)

Professional installation up to 1 acre; DIY is $0.

算出値 Smart Lawn NY (installer)

$199 a year (midpoint of $149-$249 care plans) as a share of the entry price.

仮定

Useful life in years.

仮定

Share of allowed hours the mower can work (rain, charging).

仮定

Mows lost to faults or stuck robots.

仮定

Edging and trimming the robot can't do, as a share of a service visit you still pay for.

仮定

Your own time is not costed here (you would spend it anyway, or enjoy it).

仮定

kWh per robot-hour.

仮定

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

資金
仮定

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

仮定

Years in the NPV comparison.

仮定

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

仮定

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

仮定

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

結果

選択肢月額年額Per unit (mow)初期費用回収期間Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
人 Lawn service 比較の基準 $125$1,505$50.00— — — —
ロボット Buy a robot mower $99.12$1,189$39.52$2,898 33 か月 2%
Utilisation 3%
 $1,638

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a robot mower5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a robot mowerLawn servicelow value: 30 → -$504high value: 85 → $5,387Active months per yearlow value: 4 → -$657high value: 10 → $3,933Robot purchase pricelow value: 1500 → $2,844high value: 3299 → $431Work that stays humanlow value: 0 → $2,583high value: 0.35 → $378Useful life or contractlow value: 3 → $286high value: 8 → $2,242Maintenance per yearlow value: 0.04 → $2,062high value: 0.15 → $977Integration and setuplow value: 0 → $2,137high value: 799 → $1,338Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → $1,985high value: 0.12 → $1,227Work lost to failureslow value: 0 → $1,804high value: 0.1 → $1,251$1,6380low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/lawn-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。

Chart単位あたりの人件費 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/lawn-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.$0.00$20.00$40.002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / mowscenario range単位あたりの人件費 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/lawn-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not…

逆転する年: すでに

What the spreadsheet misses

安全性
Blades plus children, pets and hedgehogs: pick a model with lift sensors and do not run it at night.
品質
Frequent small cuts look tidy; edges still need trimming.
柔軟性
A service also blows, edges and spots problems.
Edge cases
Steep slopes, many separate patches and poor GPS/RTK signal break wire-free mowers.
Customer experience
You are the customer: no scheduling, no noise from big engines.
Jobs and redeployment
Small landscaping businesses lose the weekly mow but keep higher-skill work.
規制
Mostly none; some towns restrict night-time running.

関連

このページの出典

注記と出典は英語です。英語版が正式な版です。

  1. Lawn mowing cost: $30-$85 per visit for a 1/8 to 1/4 acre yard, about $50 on average HomeGuide, 2026
  2. Mammotion LUBA 3 AWD robot mower: $2,399-$3,299 by coverage tier Mammotion US store, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Robotic mower installation: up to 1 acre $499, over 1 acre $799 Zippy Lawnz (installer), 2026-10 · vendor
  4. Annual robotic mower care plans $149-$249 Smart Lawn NY (installer), 2026-10 · vendor
  5. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  6. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  7. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  8. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  9. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  10. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  11. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  12. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  13. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  14. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  15. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013