whirrwork

Robot or Human? · Projections

Projections to 2030 and 2035

Three scenarios per job and country. Ranges, never single years. Read the assumptions before quoting a number.

Whirrwork modelled estimates, not facts. Every projection here is logged on the track record page and will be scored against what actually happens.

Scenarios

ScenarioLearning rate per doublingShipment growth by robot familyWage pathRobot productivity gain / yr
Robots slow10%mobile 8% · drone 6% · cobot 4% · consumer 4%low0.0%
Base15%mobile 15% · drone 12% · cobot 8% · consumer 10%base1.5%
Robots fast20%mobile 24% · drone 20% · cobot 14% · consumer 18%high3.0%

Learning rates bracket the literature: Wright (Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences) found about 20% for airframes; Nagy et al. (PLoS ONE) found Wright's law among the best hindcasters across 62 technologies, with errors that grow with the horizon; Ziegler & Trancik (Energy & Environmental Science) estimate about 20% for lithium-ion batteries; Interact Analysis expected 10-15% for mobile robots (Robotics 24/7). Shipment growth anchors: IFR professional service robots +24% in 2025 (International Federation of Robotics); IFR industrial installations forecast to grow about 7% a year to 2029 (International Federation of Robotics). The spreads between scenarios are our assumptions.

Real wage growth

CountryLowBaseHighWhy
United States0.5%1.2%2.0%Base: ISCO-9 real growth 2015-2024 about 1.2% a year.
Germany0.5%1.5%3.0%ISCO-9 real growth 2014-2022 was 4.0% a year (minimum-wage era); 2022-2025 nominal wages rose 4.4% a year against ~3.4% inflation. Base 1.5%.
United Kingdom0.5%1.4%2.5%ISCO-9 real growth 2015-2025 about 1.4% a year.
Japan-0.5%0.3%1.0%All-industry real earnings growth 2011-2021 about -0.2% a year; recent pay rounds were stronger.
China2.0%4.0%6.0%Real growth 2012-2022 about 6.4% a year, but urban non-private wages rose only 2.8% nominal in 2024.
India1.5%3.3%5.0%ISCO-9 real growth 2022-2025 about 3.3% a year (short series).
Brazil0.5%1.3%2.5%ISCO-9 real growth 2015-2025 about 1.3% a year.
Mexico1.0%2.6%4.0%ISCO-9 real growth 2015-2025 about 2.6% a year (minimum-wage increases).

The robots-fast scenario pairs fast learning with high wage growth, and robots-slow the opposite, so the range is wide on purpose. All figures are in constant 2026 money with a 5% real financing rate; exchange rates are held at the 2026-10-23 ECB rates. Downloads: rvh-projections.csv, rvh-model.json.

The Index

Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios). Whirrwork modelled estimates, not facts.
JobUSDEGBJPCNINBRMX
Commercial floor cleaningnownow2029 (2028–2033)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)2029 (2028–after 2035)2029 (2028–after 2035)2032 (2029–after 2035)after 2035 (2035–after 2035)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Pallet movingnownownownow2031 (2029–after 2035)not by 2035after 2035 (2032–after 2035)after 2035 (2034–after 2035)
Security patrolnownownownowafter 2035 (2032–after 2035)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Home lawn mowingnownownow20272032 (2029–after 2035)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)
Commercial mowingnot by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Pool cleaningnownownownownow2031 (2029–after 2035)2027 (2027–2030)2028 (2027–2030)
Window and facade cleaningnownownownownownownownow
Roof inspectionnot by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Cell tower inspectionnownownownownownownownow
Wind turbine blade inspectionnownownownownownownownow
Solar farm inspectionnownownownownownownownow
Crop sprayingafter 2035 (2031–after 2035)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)not by 2035after 2035 (2035–after 2035)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Drone light show vs fireworksnot by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Restaurant food runningnownownownownownot by 20352029 (2028–2033)2033 (2030–after 2035)
Hospital deliveriesnownownownow2033 (2030–after 2035)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
CNC / injection machine tendingnownownownownownot by 2035nownow
Weldingnownownowafter 2035 (2033–after 2035)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
End-of-line palletizingnownownownow2027 (2027–2028)not by 2035after 2035 (2035–after 2035)after 2035 (2035–after 2035)
Warehouse inventory countingnownownownowafter 2035 (2032–after 2035)not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035
Residential snow clearingnot by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035not by 2035

🧽 Commercial floor cleaning

Cleaner with a walk-behind autoscrubber vs Autonomous floor scrubber. Open the calculator →

Commercial floor cleaning: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Commercial floor cleaning: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0101002026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.930.81 (0.88–0.72)0.69 (0.83–0.54)now
Germany0.900.78 (0.86–0.68)0.67 (0.81–0.50)now
United Kingdom1.080.94 (1.03–0.81)0.79 (0.97–0.59)2029 (2028–2033)
Japan1.901.68 (1.86–1.45)1.44 (1.81–1.05)not by 2035
China3.152.42 (2.80–1.99)1.77 (2.44–1.17)not by 2035
India29.7823.07 (26.84–18.78)16.80 (23.57–10.64)not by 2035
Brazil5.184.36 (4.86–3.64)3.53 (4.50–2.38)not by 2035
Mexico5.674.55 (5.23–3.77)3.47 (4.72–2.31)not by 2035

📦 Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)

Picker walking with a cart vs Collaborative picking AMRs (people still pick). Open the calculator →

Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted): robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted): robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0101002026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States1.090.96 (1.08–0.91)0.89 (1.07–0.79)2029 (2028–after 2035)
Germany1.090.95 (1.07–0.90)0.88 (1.06–0.78)2029 (2028–after 2035)
United Kingdom1.181.02 (1.17–0.96)0.95 (1.15–0.83)2032 (2029–after 2035)
Japan1.411.20 (1.40–1.13)1.12 (1.39–0.98)after 2035 (2035–after 2035)
China2.291.77 (2.19–1.63)1.56 (2.07–1.35)not by 2035
India16.6211.78 (15.68–10.65)10.13 (14.64–8.50)not by 2035
Brazil3.392.63 (3.29–2.41)2.37 (3.17–2.02)not by 2035
Mexico3.652.76 (3.51–2.53)2.45 (3.35–2.09)not by 2035

🏗️ Pallet moving

Forklift or pallet-truck operator vs Autonomous pallet mover (AMR). Open the calculator →

Pallet moving: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Pallet moving: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.540.51 (0.53–0.48)0.47 (0.52–0.43)now
Germany0.540.50 (0.53–0.47)0.47 (0.52–0.42)now
United Kingdom0.580.54 (0.56–0.50)0.50 (0.55–0.44)now
Japan0.770.71 (0.76–0.65)0.65 (0.75–0.55)now
China1.271.05 (1.17–0.91)0.84 (1.06–0.65)2031 (2029–after 2035)
India7.445.84 (6.74–4.83)4.36 (5.97–2.89)not by 2035
Brazil1.471.28 (1.40–1.12)1.10 (1.32–0.83)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)
Mexico1.811.51 (1.69–1.30)1.22 (1.56–0.91)after 2035 (2034–after 2035)

🛡️ Security patrol

Security guard on patrol vs Autonomous patrol robot (MaaS). Open the calculator →

Security patrol: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Security patrol: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.660.63 (0.65–0.60)0.59 (0.64–0.54)now
Germany0.630.60 (0.63–0.57)0.57 (0.62–0.52)now
United Kingdom0.690.65 (0.68–0.61)0.60 (0.67–0.55)now
Japan0.940.87 (0.93–0.80)0.80 (0.92–0.69)now
China1.421.22 (1.35–1.10)1.05 (1.28–0.87)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)
India8.757.20 (8.25–6.17)5.79 (7.70–4.33)not by 2035
Brazil1.801.59 (1.74–1.41)1.38 (1.68–1.11)not by 2035
Mexico2.231.92 (2.14–1.69)1.62 (2.04–1.29)not by 2035

🏠 Home lawn mowing

Lawn service (per visit) vs Wire-free robot mower. Open the calculator →

Home lawn mowing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Home lawn mowing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.750.70 (0.74–0.64)0.64 (0.72–0.53)now
Germany0.760.70 (0.74–0.64)0.64 (0.72–0.53)now
United Kingdom0.830.77 (0.81–0.70)0.70 (0.79–0.57)now
Japan1.000.93 (0.99–0.84)0.86 (0.98–0.69)2027
China1.191.04 (1.13–0.91)0.87 (1.05–0.68)2032 (2029–after 2035)
India1.461.28 (1.40–1.13)1.08 (1.31–0.83)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)
Brazil1.301.18 (1.26–1.05)1.05 (1.22–0.82)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)
Mexico1.311.17 (1.27–1.04)1.01 (1.21–0.79)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)

🌳 Commercial mowing

Crew member on a commercial ride-on mower vs Autonomous commercial mower (lease). Open the calculator →

Commercial mowing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Commercial mowing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario1.0101002026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States1.421.32 (1.39–1.24)1.22 (1.36–1.08)not by 2035
Germany1.441.34 (1.41–1.24)1.23 (1.37–1.07)not by 2035
United Kingdom1.661.53 (1.62–1.43)1.41 (1.58–1.23)not by 2035
Japan2.392.23 (2.36–2.06)2.06 (2.33–1.77)not by 2035
China4.163.61 (3.91–3.28)3.11 (3.64–2.63)not by 2035
India36.4431.49 (34.29–28.33)26.85 (31.90–22.30)not by 2035
Brazil6.626.01 (6.40–5.47)5.37 (6.13–4.50)not by 2035
Mexico7.226.38 (6.90–5.80)5.56 (6.53–4.68)not by 2035

🌊 Pool cleaning

Weekly pool service vs Robotic pool cleaner (you still do chemistry). Open the calculator →

Pool cleaning: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Pool cleaning: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.760.73 (0.75–0.70)0.70 (0.74–0.65)now
Germany0.750.72 (0.74–0.69)0.69 (0.73–0.64)now
United Kingdom0.790.75 (0.78–0.72)0.72 (0.77–0.66)now
Japan0.890.85 (0.88–0.81)0.81 (0.88–0.73)now
China0.960.88 (0.93–0.83)0.81 (0.89–0.71)now
India1.101.01 (1.06–0.93)0.91 (1.02–0.79)2031 (2029–after 2035)
Brazil1.010.96 (1.00–0.89)0.90 (0.98–0.78)2027 (2027–2030)
Mexico1.020.95 (1.00–0.89)0.87 (0.97–0.77)2028 (2027–2030)

🏢 Window and facade cleaning

Rope-access or lift crew (contract) vs Cleaning-drone service. Open the calculator →

Window and facade cleaning: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Window and facade cleaning: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.02026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.360.35 (0.36–0.34)0.34 (0.35–0.32)now
Germany0.360.35 (0.36–0.34)0.34 (0.36–0.32)now
United Kingdom0.370.36 (0.37–0.35)0.35 (0.36–0.33)now
Japan0.390.38 (0.39–0.37)0.37 (0.39–0.35)now
China0.410.39 (0.40–0.38)0.37 (0.39–0.35)now
India0.440.42 (0.43–0.40)0.40 (0.42–0.37)now
Brazil0.420.41 (0.41–0.39)0.39 (0.41–0.36)now
Mexico0.420.40 (0.42–0.39)0.39 (0.41–0.36)now

🔍 Roof inspection

Inspector on a ladder vs Drone roof inspection. Open the calculator →

Roof inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Roof inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario1.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States1.901.78 (1.86–1.66)1.65 (1.80–1.44)not by 2035
Germany2.051.91 (2.00–1.77)1.77 (1.94–1.54)not by 2035
United Kingdom2.121.98 (2.07–1.85)1.83 (2.02–1.60)not by 2035
Japan2.412.26 (2.37–2.11)2.11 (2.32–1.83)not by 2035
China2.572.36 (2.49–2.19)2.16 (2.39–1.90)not by 2035
India2.772.55 (2.68–2.37)2.33 (2.58–2.05)not by 2035
Brazil2.622.44 (2.55–2.27)2.26 (2.48–1.97)not by 2035
Mexico2.642.45 (2.57–2.27)2.25 (2.49–1.97)not by 2035

📡 Cell tower inspection

Tower climber inspection vs Drone tower inspection. Open the calculator →

Cell tower inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Cell tower inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.02026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.480.46 (0.47–0.44)0.44 (0.46–0.40)now
Germany0.510.48 (0.50–0.46)0.46 (0.49–0.42)now
United Kingdom0.520.50 (0.51–0.47)0.47 (0.50–0.43)now
Japan0.580.55 (0.57–0.52)0.52 (0.56–0.47)now
China0.610.57 (0.59–0.54)0.53 (0.57–0.48)now
India0.640.60 (0.63–0.57)0.56 (0.61–0.51)now
Brazil0.610.58 (0.60–0.55)0.55 (0.59–0.50)now
Mexico0.620.58 (0.61–0.55)0.55 (0.59–0.50)now

⚡ Wind turbine blade inspection

Rope-access blade inspection vs Drone blade inspection. Open the calculator →

Wind turbine blade inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Wind turbine blade inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.02026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.280.27 (0.28–0.26)0.25 (0.27–0.23)now
Germany0.290.28 (0.29–0.27)0.27 (0.28–0.24)now
United Kingdom0.300.29 (0.30–0.27)0.27 (0.29–0.25)now
Japan0.330.32 (0.33–0.30)0.30 (0.32–0.27)now
China0.350.33 (0.34–0.31)0.31 (0.33–0.28)now
India0.370.34 (0.36–0.33)0.32 (0.35–0.30)now
Brazil0.350.33 (0.35–0.32)0.32 (0.34–0.29)now
Mexico0.350.33 (0.35–0.32)0.31 (0.34–0.29)now

☀️ Solar farm inspection

Manual inspection (handheld thermal, walking rows) vs Drone thermography. Open the calculator →

Solar farm inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Solar farm inspection: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.02026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.480.45 (0.47–0.42)0.42 (0.45–0.37)now
Germany0.510.48 (0.50–0.45)0.45 (0.49–0.39)now
United Kingdom0.530.50 (0.52–0.46)0.46 (0.50–0.41)now
Japan0.600.56 (0.59–0.53)0.53 (0.58–0.46)now
China0.640.59 (0.62–0.55)0.54 (0.59–0.48)now
India0.680.63 (0.66–0.59)0.58 (0.64–0.51)now
Brazil0.650.61 (0.63–0.57)0.56 (0.62–0.49)now
Mexico0.650.61 (0.64–0.57)0.56 (0.62–0.49)now

🌾 Crop spraying

Ground rig or crop duster (custom hire) vs Spray drone (hire, or buy and fly). Open the calculator →

Crop spraying: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Crop spraying: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario1.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States1.221.13 (1.19–1.04)1.02 (1.16–0.86)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)
Germany1.231.13 (1.20–1.03)1.02 (1.16–0.86)after 2035 (2031–after 2035)
United Kingdom1.261.16 (1.23–1.06)1.05 (1.19–0.87)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)
Japan1.501.38 (1.48–1.25)1.25 (1.44–1.01)not by 2035
China1.811.55 (1.70–1.36)1.29 (1.57–0.99)after 2035 (2035–after 2035)
India1.981.70 (1.86–1.48)1.41 (1.73–1.07)not by 2035
Brazil1.791.61 (1.73–1.43)1.41 (1.65–1.10)not by 2035
Mexico1.831.60 (1.75–1.42)1.37 (1.65–1.06)not by 2035

🎆 Drone light show vs fireworks

Fireworks display (pyrotechnics crew) vs Drone light show. Open the calculator →

Drone light show vs fireworks: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Drone light show vs fireworks: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario1.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States2.021.88 (1.97–1.75)1.74 (1.91–1.50)not by 2035
Germany1.461.36 (1.42–1.25)1.25 (1.38–1.08)not by 2035
United Kingdom3.543.29 (3.45–3.05)3.03 (3.35–2.63)not by 2035
Japan2.462.30 (2.41–2.14)2.13 (2.36–1.84)not by 2035
China8.247.53 (7.94–6.97)6.84 (7.61–6.00)not by 2035
India8.447.75 (8.17–7.18)7.07 (7.86–6.18)not by 2035
Brazil1.911.78 (1.87–1.65)1.64 (1.81–1.42)not by 2035
Mexico2.081.92 (2.02–1.78)1.76 (1.95–1.53)not by 2035

🍽️ Restaurant food running

Food runner / busser vs Serving robot (staff load and hand over). Open the calculator →

Restaurant food running: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Restaurant food running: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.550.53 (0.55–0.51)0.50 (0.54–0.44)now
Germany0.530.51 (0.52–0.49)0.48 (0.52–0.43)now
United Kingdom0.550.53 (0.55–0.51)0.50 (0.54–0.44)now
Japan0.660.62 (0.65–0.59)0.58 (0.65–0.47)now
China0.890.77 (0.84–0.70)0.66 (0.78–0.49)now
India4.263.38 (3.88–2.82)2.56 (3.45–1.10)not by 2035
Brazil1.060.95 (1.02–0.86)0.84 (0.98–0.55)2029 (2028–2033)
Mexico1.261.09 (1.20–0.96)0.91 (1.12–0.57)2033 (2030–after 2035)

🏥 Hospital deliveries

Porter / orderly making runs vs Autonomous hospital delivery robot (TUG-class). Open the calculator →

Hospital deliveries: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Hospital deliveries: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.590.57 (0.59–0.55)0.55 (0.58–0.51)now
Germany0.570.55 (0.56–0.53)0.53 (0.56–0.49)now
United Kingdom0.610.59 (0.61–0.57)0.56 (0.60–0.52)now
Japan0.770.74 (0.77–0.71)0.71 (0.76–0.64)now
China1.181.07 (1.13–0.99)0.96 (1.07–0.75)2033 (2030–after 2035)
India6.845.98 (6.47–5.43)5.18 (6.05–3.63)not by 2035
Brazil1.471.36 (1.43–1.27)1.25 (1.39–1.04)not by 2035
Mexico1.811.63 (1.74–1.51)1.47 (1.66–1.15)not by 2035

🏭 CNC / injection machine tending

Operator loading and unloading a machine vs Cobot machine tending cell. Open the calculator →

CNC / injection machine tending: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.CNC / injection machine tending: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.370.35 (0.36–0.34)0.34 (0.36–0.31)now
Germany0.360.34 (0.36–0.33)0.33 (0.35–0.30)now
United Kingdom0.380.36 (0.37–0.34)0.34 (0.37–0.31)now
Japan0.440.42 (0.44–0.40)0.40 (0.43–0.36)now
China0.700.62 (0.66–0.58)0.55 (0.63–0.48)now
India3.533.06 (3.33–2.75)2.60 (3.10–2.11)not by 2035
Brazil0.780.73 (0.77–0.68)0.68 (0.75–0.58)now
Mexico0.940.85 (0.91–0.79)0.76 (0.87–0.65)now

🔥 Welding

Manual MIG welder vs Cobot welding system (welder still loads and supervises). Open the calculator →

Welding: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Welding: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0101002026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.800.76 (0.79–0.72)0.71 (0.77–0.64)now
Germany0.820.77 (0.80–0.72)0.72 (0.79–0.64)now
United Kingdom0.890.83 (0.87–0.78)0.77 (0.85–0.68)now
Japan1.211.14 (1.20–1.06)1.07 (1.20–0.92)after 2035 (2033–after 2035)
China2.241.89 (2.08–1.67)1.55 (1.90–1.22)not by 2035
India14.0111.64 (12.99–10.06)9.28 (11.82–6.77)not by 2035
Brazil2.702.45 (2.62–2.19)2.17 (2.51–1.72)not by 2035
Mexico3.112.70 (2.96–2.40)2.28 (2.78–1.78)not by 2035

📦 End-of-line palletizing

Packer stacking cases by hand vs Cobot palletizing cell. Open the calculator →

End-of-line palletizing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.End-of-line palletizing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.370.34 (0.36–0.32)0.31 (0.35–0.26)now
Germany0.360.33 (0.35–0.30)0.30 (0.34–0.25)now
United Kingdom0.410.38 (0.40–0.35)0.34 (0.39–0.28)now
Japan0.630.59 (0.62–0.53)0.54 (0.62–0.44)now
China1.030.85 (0.95–0.74)0.68 (0.86–0.51)2027 (2027–2028)
India9.157.55 (8.45–6.49)5.96 (7.66–4.26)not by 2035
Brazil1.661.49 (1.60–1.31)1.30 (1.53–0.99)after 2035 (2035–after 2035)
Mexico1.811.55 (1.71–1.36)1.28 (1.60–0.96)after 2035 (2035–after 2035)

🛸 Warehouse inventory counting

Cycle counter with a scanner and lift vs Autonomous inventory drone (RaaS). Open the calculator →

Warehouse inventory counting: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Warehouse inventory counting: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0101002026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.430.41 (0.42–0.38)0.38 (0.41–0.34)now
Germany0.420.40 (0.42–0.37)0.37 (0.40–0.33)now
United Kingdom0.500.47 (0.49–0.44)0.43 (0.47–0.39)now
Japan0.670.64 (0.67–0.60)0.60 (0.66–0.53)now
China1.341.18 (1.27–1.08)1.03 (1.18–0.88)after 2035 (2032–after 2035)
India12.2710.77 (11.62–9.77)9.32 (10.89–7.83)not by 2035
Brazil2.182.00 (2.11–1.84)1.82 (2.04–1.54)not by 2035
Mexico2.382.13 (2.29–1.95)1.89 (2.18–1.61)not by 2035

❄️ Residential snow clearing

Snow removal service (per visit) vs Autonomous snow blower robot. Open the calculator →

Residential snow clearing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Residential snow clearing: robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario1.0102026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States2.502.25 (2.42–1.98)1.97 (2.32–1.49)not by 2035
Germany2.532.26 (2.45–1.96)1.96 (2.35–1.44)not by 2035
United Kingdom2.862.56 (2.77–2.24)2.23 (2.66–1.65)not by 2035
Japan3.613.30 (3.57–2.90)2.95 (3.52–2.22)not by 2035
China4.473.75 (4.18–3.19)3.00 (3.83–2.09)not by 2035
India5.704.85 (5.39–4.15)3.95 (5.01–2.78)not by 2035
Brazil4.964.42 (4.79–3.83)3.83 (4.59–2.78)not by 2035
Mexico5.034.35 (4.80–3.75)3.63 (4.54–2.60)not by 2035

🤖 Any other job (build your own)

A person doing the job vs A robot doing the job. Open the calculator →

Any other job (build your own): robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenarioUnited States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, break-even (1.0). Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.Any other job (build your own): robot cost ÷ human cost, base scenario0.101.0101002026202720282029203020312032203320342035ratio (below 1 = robot cheaper)United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaIndiaBrazilMexicobreak-even (1.0)Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0. Modelled estimates, not facts.
CountryRatio 20262030 (slow–fast)2035 (slow–fast)Crossover (base, range)
United States0.580.53 (0.56–0.49)0.48 (0.54–0.35)now
Germany0.680.61 (0.66–0.55)0.54 (0.63–0.37)now
United Kingdom0.790.70 (0.76–0.63)0.62 (0.72–0.40)now
Japan1.151.03 (1.12–0.92)0.91 (1.10–0.52)2032 (2029–after 2035)
China2.021.61 (1.83–1.36)1.23 (1.62–0.63)after 2035 (2034–after 2035)
India17.9514.13 (16.27–11.68)10.55 (14.41–4.19)not by 2035
Brazil3.242.77 (3.06–2.36)2.29 (2.85–1.04)not by 2035
Mexico3.532.89 (3.28–2.45)2.27 (2.99–1.04)not by 2035