whirrwork

Robot or Human?

Drone light show vs fireworks

Fireworks display (pyrotechnics crew) vs Drone light show

Whirrwork modelled estimates, not facts. Methodology · Track record

Human · Per year$25,984Fireworks display
Robot · Per year$52,500Drone show
Paybacknever
Crossover yearnot by 2035Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper.

United States · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

Run your numbers

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

Workload
Assumption

Shows per year.

Assumption

Volume is annual.

People
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 00-0000.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Prices
Derived City of Watertown, Minnesota Town of Berthoud, Colorado

Midpoint of two public municipal contracts: $9,468 (Watertown, MN, 2025) and $42,500 for 22 minutes (Berthoud, CO, 2026).

Cyberdrone, citing SPH Engineering

Average North American show (~218 drones), SPH Engineering market data.

Robot
Assumption

Nothing left over.

Assumption

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Money
Assumption

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Assumption

Years in the NPV comparison.

Assumption

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Assumption

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Assumption

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Results

OptionPer monthPer yearPer unit (show)UpfrontPaybackBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Human Fireworks display Baseline $2,165$25,984$25,984— — — —
Robot Drone show $4,375$52,500$52,500— never — -$110,838

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone show5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone showWorkloadlow value: 1 → -$110,838high value: 6 → -$665,028Drone showlow value: 30000 → -$15,270high value: 90000 → -$270,118Fireworks displaylow value: 9468 → -$182,125high value: 42500 → -$39,551Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → -$119,157high value: 0.12 → -$100,958Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → -$109,965high value: 0.0636 → -$111,744-$110,8380low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork modelled estimates, not facts.

ChartHuman cost per unit (Base), Robot cost per unit (Base), Robot cost per unit (Robots fast), Robot cost per unit (Robots slow). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.$0.00$20,000$40,0002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / showscenario rangeHuman cost per unit (Base)Robot cost per unit (Base)Robot cost per unit (Robots fast)Robot cost per unit (Robots slow)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate…

Crossover year: not by 2035

What the spreadsheet misses

Safety
No fire risk or falling debris; drones can (rarely) fall out of the sky, so crowds stay out from under the flight box.
Quality
Drones draw logos and stories; fireworks have the bang. Many towns now do both.
Flexibility
Drone shows can be reused, sponsored and rescheduled; fireworks can fly in more wind.
Edge cases
High wind cancels drone shows; burn bans cancel fireworks.
Customer experience
Quieter: better for pets, veterans and wildlife; less thrilling for some.
Jobs and redeployment
Pyrotechnicians and drone show crews are different trades; neither employs many people.
Regulation
Drone shows need aviation waivers (FAA Part 107 waivers in the US); fireworks need fire-authority permits.

Related

Sources on this page

  1. City council agenda: Rails to Trails fireworks display, $9,468 (Flashing Thunder) City of Watertown, Minnesota, 2025-07-08
  2. Board of Trustees: Zambelli Fireworks contract, $42,500 base for a 22-minute July 3, 2026 show Town of Berthoud, Colorado, 2026-02-10
  3. Average drone show cost by region (SPH Engineering market data): North America $52,500 (~218 drones); EU $42,034; UK $90,600; China $114,560; India $91,700; LatAm $25,550 Cyberdrone, citing SPH Engineering, 2026-10 · vendor
  4. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  5. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  6. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  7. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  8. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  9. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  10. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  11. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  12. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  13. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  14. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013