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Roboter oder Mensch?

Drone light show vs fireworks

Fireworks display (pyrotechnics crew) vs Drone light show

Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten. Methodik · Trefferbilanz

Mensch · Pro Jahr25.984 $Fireworks display
Roboter · Pro Jahr52.500 $Drone show
Amortisationnie
Jahr der Kostenwendenicht bis 2035Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper.

Vereinigte Staaten · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

Mit eigenen Zahlen rechnen

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

Arbeitsmenge
Annahme

Shows per year.

Annahme

Volume is annual.

Personal
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 00-0000.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Preise
Abgeleitet City of Watertown, Minnesota Town of Berthoud, Colorado

Midpoint of two public municipal contracts: $9,468 (Watertown, MN, 2025) and $42,500 for 22 minutes (Berthoud, CO, 2026).

Cyberdrone, citing SPH Engineering

Average North American show (~218 drones), SPH Engineering market data.

Roboter
Annahme

Nothing left over.

Annahme

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanzen
Annahme

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Annahme

Years in the NPV comparison.

Annahme

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Annahme

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Annahme

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Ergebnisse

OptionPro MonatPro JahrPer unit (show)EinmalkostenAmortisationBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Mensch Fireworks display Vergleichsbasis 2.165 $25.984 $25.984 $— — — —
Roboter Drone show 4.375 $52.500 $52.500 $— nie — -110.838 $

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone show5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone showWorkloadlow value: 1 → -110.838 $high value: 6 → -665.028 $Drone showlow value: 30000 → -15.270 $high value: 90000 → -270.118 $Fireworks displaylow value: 9468 → -182.125 $high value: 42500 → -39.551 $Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → -119.157 $high value: 0.12 → -100.958 $Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → -109.965 $high value: 0.0636 → -111.744 $-110.838 $0low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten.

ChartPersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: schneller Fortschritt), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: langsamer Fortschritt). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 $20.000 $40.000 $2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / showscenario rangePersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate…

Jahr der Kostenwende: nicht bis 2035

What the spreadsheet misses

Sicherheit
No fire risk or falling debris; drones can (rarely) fall out of the sky, so crowds stay out from under the flight box.
Qualität
Drones draw logos and stories; fireworks have the bang. Many towns now do both.
Flexibilität
Drone shows can be reused, sponsored and rescheduled; fireworks can fly in more wind.
Edge cases
High wind cancels drone shows; burn bans cancel fireworks.
Customer experience
Quieter: better for pets, veterans and wildlife; less thrilling for some.
Jobs and redeployment
Pyrotechnicians and drone show crews are different trades; neither employs many people.
Regulierung
Drone shows need aviation waivers (FAA Part 107 waivers in the US); fireworks need fire-authority permits.

Siehe auch

Quellen auf dieser Seite

Hinweise und Quellen sind auf Englisch; maßgeblich ist die englische Fassung.

  1. City council agenda: Rails to Trails fireworks display, $9,468 (Flashing Thunder) City of Watertown, Minnesota, 2025-07-08
  2. Board of Trustees: Zambelli Fireworks contract, $42,500 base for a 22-minute July 3, 2026 show Town of Berthoud, Colorado, 2026-02-10
  3. Average drone show cost by region (SPH Engineering market data): North America $52,500 (~218 drones); EU $42,034; UK $90,600; China $114,560; India $91,700; LatAm $25,550 Cyberdrone, citing SPH Engineering, 2026-10 · vendor
  4. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  5. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  6. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  7. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  8. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  9. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  10. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  11. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  12. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  13. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  14. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013