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ロボットか人か？

Drone light show vs fireworks

Fireworks display (pyrotechnics crew) vs Drone light show

Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。 方法論 · 予測の検証記録

人 · 年額$25,984Fireworks display
ロボット · 年額$52,500Drone show
回収期間なし
逆転する年2035年までなしBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper.

アメリカ合衆国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

自分の数字で計算する

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作業量
仮定

Shows per year.

仮定

Volume is annual.

人員
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 00-0000.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

価格
算出値 City of Watertown, Minnesota Town of Berthoud, Colorado

Midpoint of two public municipal contracts: $9,468 (Watertown, MN, 2025) and $42,500 for 22 minutes (Berthoud, CO, 2026).

Cyberdrone, citing SPH Engineering

Average North American show (~218 drones), SPH Engineering market data.

ロボット
仮定

Nothing left over.

仮定

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

資金
仮定

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

仮定

Years in the NPV comparison.

仮定

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

仮定

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

仮定

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

結果

選択肢月額年額Per unit (show)初期費用回収期間Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
人 Fireworks display 比較の基準 $2,165$25,984$25,984— — — —
ロボット Drone show $4,375$52,500$52,500— なし — -$110,838

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone show5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone showWorkloadlow value: 1 → -$110,838high value: 6 → -$665,028Drone showlow value: 30000 → -$15,270high value: 90000 → -$270,118Fireworks displaylow value: 9468 → -$182,125high value: 42500 → -$39,551Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → -$119,157high value: 0.12 → -$100,958Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → -$109,965high value: 0.0636 → -$111,744-$110,8380low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。

Chart単位あたりの人件費 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.$0.00$20,000$40,0002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / showscenario range単位あたりの人件費 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/drone-light-show/). Modelled estimate…

逆転する年: 2035年までなし

What the spreadsheet misses

安全性
No fire risk or falling debris; drones can (rarely) fall out of the sky, so crowds stay out from under the flight box.
品質
Drones draw logos and stories; fireworks have the bang. Many towns now do both.
柔軟性
Drone shows can be reused, sponsored and rescheduled; fireworks can fly in more wind.
Edge cases
High wind cancels drone shows; burn bans cancel fireworks.
Customer experience
Quieter: better for pets, veterans and wildlife; less thrilling for some.
Jobs and redeployment
Pyrotechnicians and drone show crews are different trades; neither employs many people.
規制
Drone shows need aviation waivers (FAA Part 107 waivers in the US); fireworks need fire-authority permits.

関連

このページの出典

注記と出典は英語です。英語版が正式な版です。

  1. City council agenda: Rails to Trails fireworks display, $9,468 (Flashing Thunder) City of Watertown, Minnesota, 2025-07-08
  2. Board of Trustees: Zambelli Fireworks contract, $42,500 base for a 22-minute July 3, 2026 show Town of Berthoud, Colorado, 2026-02-10
  3. Average drone show cost by region (SPH Engineering market data): North America $52,500 (~218 drones); EU $42,034; UK $90,600; China $114,560; India $91,700; LatAm $25,550 Cyberdrone, citing SPH Engineering, 2026-10 · vendor
  4. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  5. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  6. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  7. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  8. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  9. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  10. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  11. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  12. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  13. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  14. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013