Robot mu, insan mı?
Any other job (build your own)
A person doing the job vs A robot doing the job
Whirrwork model tahminleridir, kesin bilgi değildir. Yöntem · Tahmin karnesi
On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.
Amerika Birleşik Devletleri · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation
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Sonuçlar
| Seçenek | Aylık | Yıllık | Per unit (unit) | Başlangıç maliyeti | Geri ödeme süresi | Break-even utilisation | 5-year NPV vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| İnsan Person Karşılaştırma tabanı | $7.705 | $92.465 | $3,50 | — | — | — | — |
| Robot Buy Robots needed: 2 |
$4.684 | $56.213 | $2,13 | $120.000 | 23 ay | %29 Utilisation %63 |
$170.382 |
| Robot Lease Robots needed: 2 |
$5.382 | $64.582 | $2,45 | $20.000 | 7.5 ay | %37 Utilisation %63 |
$135.899 |
| Robot RaaS Robots needed: 2 |
$5.382 | $64.582 | $2,45 | $20.000 | 7.5 ay | %37 Utilisation %63 |
$135.899 |
What moves the answer most
Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.
Cost per unit to 2035
Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork model tahminleridir, kesin bilgi değildir.
Kesişme yılı: şimdiden
What the spreadsheet misses
- Güvenlik
- Dull, dirty and dangerous tasks are where robots most often pay off beyond cost.
- Kalite
- Robots repeat; people adapt.
- Esneklik
- The more the job changes week to week, the more a person is worth.
- Edge cases
- List the exceptions before you buy; they are usually the expensive part.
- Customer experience
- Ask customers, not vendors.
- Jobs and redeployment
- Plan redeployment and training first; it decides whether staff help or hinder.
- Mevzuat
- Machinery, privacy and sector rules vary by country.
İlgili
Bu sayfadaki kaynaklar
Notlar ve kaynaklar İngilizcedir; esas alınan metin İngilizcedir.
- Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
- Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
- Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
- Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
- Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
- 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
- Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
- Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
- Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
- Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
- Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013