ロボットか人か？
Any other job (build your own)
A person doing the job vs A robot doing the job
人 · 年額$92,465Person
ロボット · 年額$56,213Buy
回収期間23 か月
逆転する年すでにBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)
On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.
アメリカ合衆国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation
自分の数字で計算する
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結果
| 選択肢 | 月額 | 年額 | Per unit (unit) | 初期費用 | 回収期間 | Break-even utilisation | 5-year NPV vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 人 Person 比較の基準 | $7,705 | $92,465 | $3.50 | — | — | — | — |
| ロボット Buy Robots needed: 2 |
$4,684 | $56,213 | $2.13 | $120,000 | 23 か月 | 29% Utilisation 63% |
$170,382 |
| ロボット Lease Robots needed: 2 |
$5,382 | $64,582 | $2.45 | $20,000 | 7.5 か月 | 37% Utilisation 63% |
$135,899 |
| ロボット RaaS Robots needed: 2 |
$5,382 | $64,582 | $2.45 | $20,000 | 7.5 か月 | 37% Utilisation 63% |
$135,899 |
What moves the answer most
Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.
Cost per unit to 2035
Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。
逆転する年: すでに
What the spreadsheet misses
- 安全性
- Dull, dirty and dangerous tasks are where robots most often pay off beyond cost.
- 品質
- Robots repeat; people adapt.
- 柔軟性
- The more the job changes week to week, the more a person is worth.
- Edge cases
- List the exceptions before you buy; they are usually the expensive part.
- Customer experience
- Ask customers, not vendors.
- Jobs and redeployment
- Plan redeployment and training first; it decides whether staff help or hinder.
- 規制
- Machinery, privacy and sector rules vary by country.
関連
このページの出典
注記と出典は英語です。英語版が正式な版です。
- Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
- Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
- Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
- Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
- Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
- 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
- Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
- Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
- Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
- Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
- Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013