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Robô ou humano?

Any other job (build your own)

A person doing the job vs A robot doing the job

Estimativas modeladas pela Whirrwork, não fatos. Metodologia · Histórico de acertos

Humano · Por anoUS$ 92.465Person
Robô · Por anoUS$ 56.213Buy
Prazo de retorno23 meses
Ano da viradajáBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

Estados Unidos · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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Volume de trabalho
Premissa

Units of work per day.

Premissa

Operating hours per day.

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Working days per month.

Premissa

Months per year.

Pessoas

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 00-0000.

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Premissa

Units per person-hour.

Robô
Premissa

Robot units per hour relative to a person.

Premissa

Robot price. Replace with a quote.

Premissa

Lease per robot-month.

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RaaS per robot-month.

Premissa

Integration. In factories this is often 1-3x the robot price.

Premissa

Yearly maintenance share of price.

Premissa

Useful life in years.

Premissa

Availability.

Premissa

Work lost to faults.

Premissa

Work that stays human.

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Staff minutes per robot-hour.

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kWh per robot-hour.

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Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanças
Premissa

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Premissa

Years in the NPV comparison.

Premissa

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Premissa

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Premissa

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Resultados

OpçãoPor mêsPor anoPer unit (unit)Investimento inicialPrazo de retornoBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Humano Person Referência US$ 7.705US$ 92.465US$ 3,50— — — —
Robô Buy
Robots needed: 2
US$ 4.684US$ 56.213US$ 2,13US$ 120.000 23 meses 29%
Utilisation 63%
US$ 170.382
Robô Lease
Robots needed: 2
US$ 5.382US$ 64.582US$ 2,45US$ 20.000 7.5 meses 37%
Utilisation 63%
US$ 135.899
Robô RaaS
Robots needed: 2
US$ 5.382US$ 64.582US$ 2,45US$ 20.000 7.5 meses 37%
Utilisation 63%
US$ 135.899

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy5-year NPV vs baseline: BuyRobot purchase pricelow value: 25000 → US$ 227.118high value: 100000 → US$ 56.909Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → US$ 77.949high value: 2 → US$ 244.967Hourly wagelow value: 19.608000000000004 → US$ 109.473high value: 29.412 → US$ 231.291Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → US$ 138.414high value: 1.579 → US$ 202.350Integration and setuplow value: 5000 → US$ 185.382high value: 60000 → US$ 130.382Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$ 193.803high value: 0.12 → US$ 142.737Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → US$ 159.351high value: 0.0636 → US$ 181.836Electricity price per kWhlow value: 0.08 → US$ 170.705high value: 0.3 → US$ 169.690US$ 170.382low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/generic/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Estimativas modeladas pela Whirrwork, não fatos.

ChartCusto humano por unidade (Base), Custo do robô por unidade (Base), Custo do robô por unidade (Robôs: avanço rápido), Custo do robô por unidade (Robôs: avanço lento). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/generic/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$ 0,00US$ 1,00US$ 2,00US$ 3,00US$ 4,002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / unitscenario rangeCusto humano por unidade (Base)Custo do robô por unidade (Base)Custo do robô por unidade (Robôs:…Custo do robô por unidade (Robôs:…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/generic/). Modelled estimate, not a f…

Ano da virada: já

What the spreadsheet misses

Segurança
Dull, dirty and dangerous tasks are where robots most often pay off beyond cost.
Qualidade
Robots repeat; people adapt.
Flexibilidade
The more the job changes week to week, the more a person is worth.
Edge cases
List the exceptions before you buy; they are usually the expensive part.
Customer experience
Ask customers, not vendors.
Jobs and redeployment
Plan redeployment and training first; it decides whether staff help or hinder.
Regulamentação
Machinery, privacy and sector rules vary by country.

Relacionados

Fontes desta página

As notas e as fontes estão em inglês; a versão em inglês é a referência.

  1. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  2. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  3. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  4. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  5. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  6. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  7. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  8. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  9. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  10. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  11. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013