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로봇일까, 사람일까?

Residential snow clearing

Snow removal service (per visit) vs Autonomous snow blower robot

Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다. 방법론 · 예측 검증 기록

사람 · 연간US$800Snow removal service
로봇 · 연간US$2,139Buy a snow robot
투자 회수 기간365 개월
비용 역전 연도2035년까지 없음Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper. The robot would sit idle most of the time; it pays off at higher volume or longer hours. Payback is longer than three years, which is longer than many robot contracts and some robot companies.

미국 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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작업량
가정

Clearings per winter month.

가정

Hours per day it may run.

가정

Days per month.

가정

Snow months per year.

인력
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

가격
산출값 HomeGuide

Midpoint of $30-$70 per visit for a standard driveway.

로봇
가정

Clearings per robot-hour for a two-car driveway.

Yarbo US store

Yarbo Y40P core with snow blower module.

가정

DIY setup.

가정

Yearly parts share of price.

가정

Useful life in years.

가정

Availability.

가정

Clearings lost to faults or stuck robots.

가정

Visits you still need: heavy wet snow, the plough berm at the end of the drive.

가정

Your time is not costed.

가정

kWh per robot-hour.

가정

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

자금
가정

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

가정

Years in the NPV comparison.

가정

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

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Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

가정

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

결과

옵션월간연간Per unit (visit)초기 비용투자 회수 기간Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
사람 Snow removal service 비교 기준 US$66.67US$800US$50.00— — — —
로봇 Buy a snow robot US$178US$2,139US$134US$7,299 365 개월 6%
Utilisation 2%
 -US$5,370

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a snow robot5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a snow robotWorkloadlow value: 1 → -US$7,329high value: 10 → -US$1,451Robot purchase pricelow value: 5000 → -US$2,856high value: 9000 → -US$7,230Useful life or contractlow value: 4 → -US$7,818high value: 10 → -US$3,737Active months per yearlow value: 2 → -US$6,676high value: 6 → -US$4,064Snow removal servicelow value: 30 → -US$6,420high value: 70 → -US$4,320Work that stays humanlow value: 0.05 → -US$4,880high value: 0.4 → -US$6,023Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → -US$5,151high value: 0.12 → -US$5,620Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → -US$5,429high value: 0.0636 → -US$5,309Electricity price per kWhlow value: 0.08 → -US$5,364high value: 0.3 → -US$5,382-US$5,370low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다.

Chart단위당 인건비 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$50.00US$1002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / visitscenario range단위당 인건비 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, no…

비용 역전 연도: 2035년까지 없음

What the spreadsheet misses

안전
Shovelling is a known cardiac risk for older people; that, not cost, is the strongest case here.
품질
Clears little and often, so snow never piles up.
유연성
A service brings a plough for big storms.
Edge cases
Heavy, wet or very deep snow; gravel drives.
Customer experience
Wakes nobody at 5 a.m. (unless it beeps).
Jobs and redeployment
Seasonal snow contractors lose small driveways first.
규제
None; keep it off public sidewalks unless your town allows it.

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참고 사항과 출처는 영어로 제공되며 영어판이 기준입니다.

  1. Snow removal: driveway $30-$70 per visit (standard driveway up to 90 ft) HomeGuide, 2026
  2. Yarbo Y40P Core with Snow Blower Module Gen 2: $7,299 Yarbo US store, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013