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Roboter oder Mensch?

Residential snow clearing

Snow removal service (per visit) vs Autonomous snow blower robot

Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten. Methodik · Trefferbilanz

Mensch · Pro Jahr800 $Snow removal service
Roboter · Pro Jahr2.139 $Buy a snow robot
Amortisation365 Monate
Jahr der Kostenwendenicht bis 2035Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper. The robot would sit idle most of the time; it pays off at higher volume or longer hours. Payback is longer than three years, which is longer than many robot contracts and some robot companies.

Vereinigte Staaten · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

Mit eigenen Zahlen rechnen

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

Arbeitsmenge
Annahme

Clearings per winter month.

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Hours per day it may run.

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Days per month.

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Snow months per year.

Personal
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Preise
Abgeleitet HomeGuide

Midpoint of $30-$70 per visit for a standard driveway.

Roboter
Annahme

Clearings per robot-hour for a two-car driveway.

Yarbo US store

Yarbo Y40P core with snow blower module.

Annahme

DIY setup.

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Yearly parts share of price.

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Useful life in years.

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Availability.

Annahme

Clearings lost to faults or stuck robots.

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Visits you still need: heavy wet snow, the plough berm at the end of the drive.

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Your time is not costed.

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kWh per robot-hour.

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Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanzen
Annahme

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Annahme

Years in the NPV comparison.

Annahme

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

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Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

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Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Ergebnisse

OptionPro MonatPro JahrPer unit (visit)EinmalkostenAmortisationBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Mensch Snow removal service Vergleichsbasis 66,67 $800 $50,00 $— — — —
Roboter Buy a snow robot 178 $2.139 $134 $7.299 $ 365 Monate 6 %
Utilisation 2 %
 -5.370 $

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a snow robot5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a snow robotWorkloadlow value: 1 → -7.329 $high value: 10 → -1.451 $Robot purchase pricelow value: 5000 → -2.856 $high value: 9000 → -7.230 $Useful life or contractlow value: 4 → -7.818 $high value: 10 → -3.737 $Active months per yearlow value: 2 → -6.676 $high value: 6 → -4.064 $Snow removal servicelow value: 30 → -6.420 $high value: 70 → -4.320 $Work that stays humanlow value: 0.05 → -4.880 $high value: 0.4 → -6.023 $Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → -5.151 $high value: 0.12 → -5.620 $Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → -5.429 $high value: 0.0636 → -5.309 $Electricity price per kWhlow value: 0.08 → -5.364 $high value: 0.3 → -5.382 $-5.370 $low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten.

ChartPersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: schneller Fortschritt), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: langsamer Fortschritt). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 $50,00 $100 $2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / visitscenario rangePersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, no…

Jahr der Kostenwende: nicht bis 2035

What the spreadsheet misses

Sicherheit
Shovelling is a known cardiac risk for older people; that, not cost, is the strongest case here.
Qualität
Clears little and often, so snow never piles up.
Flexibilität
A service brings a plough for big storms.
Edge cases
Heavy, wet or very deep snow; gravel drives.
Customer experience
Wakes nobody at 5 a.m. (unless it beeps).
Jobs and redeployment
Seasonal snow contractors lose small driveways first.
Regulierung
None; keep it off public sidewalks unless your town allows it.

Siehe auch

Quellen auf dieser Seite

Hinweise und Quellen sind auf Englisch; maßgeblich ist die englische Fassung.

  1. Snow removal: driveway $30-$70 per visit (standard driveway up to 90 ft) HomeGuide, 2026
  2. Yarbo Y40P Core with Snow Blower Module Gen 2: $7,299 Yarbo US store, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013