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Robot ou humain ?

Residential snow clearing

Snow removal service (per visit) vs Autonomous snow blower robot

Estimations modélisées par Whirrwork, pas des faits. Méthodologie · Bilan des prévisions

Humain · Par an800 $USSnow removal service
Robot · Par an2 139 $USBuy a snow robot
Délai de retour sur investissement365 mois
Année de basculepas d’ici 2035Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper. The robot would sit idle most of the time; it pays off at higher volume or longer hours. Payback is longer than three years, which is longer than many robot contracts and some robot companies.

États-Unis · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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Charge de travail
Hypothèse

Clearings per winter month.

Hypothèse

Hours per day it may run.

Hypothèse

Days per month.

Hypothèse

Snow months per year.

Personnel
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Prix
Calculé HomeGuide

Midpoint of $30-$70 per visit for a standard driveway.

Robot
Hypothèse

Clearings per robot-hour for a two-car driveway.

Yarbo US store

Yarbo Y40P core with snow blower module.

Hypothèse

DIY setup.

Hypothèse

Yearly parts share of price.

Hypothèse

Useful life in years.

Hypothèse

Availability.

Hypothèse

Clearings lost to faults or stuck robots.

Hypothèse

Visits you still need: heavy wet snow, the plough berm at the end of the drive.

Hypothèse

Your time is not costed.

Hypothèse

kWh per robot-hour.

Hypothèse

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finances
Hypothèse

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Hypothèse

Years in the NPV comparison.

Hypothèse

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Hypothèse

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Hypothèse

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Résultats

OptionPar moisPar anPer unit (visit)Coût initialDélai de retour sur investissementBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Humain Snow removal service Référence 66,67 $US800 $US50,00 $US— — — —
Robot Buy a snow robot 178 $US2 139 $US134 $US7 299 $US 365 mois 6 %
Utilisation 2 %
 -5 370 $US

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a snow robot5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a snow robotWorkloadlow value: 1 → -7 329 $UShigh value: 10 → -1 451 $USRobot purchase pricelow value: 5000 → -2 856 $UShigh value: 9000 → -7 230 $USUseful life or contractlow value: 4 → -7 818 $UShigh value: 10 → -3 737 $USActive months per yearlow value: 2 → -6 676 $UShigh value: 6 → -4 064 $USSnow removal servicelow value: 30 → -6 420 $UShigh value: 70 → -4 320 $USWork that stays humanlow value: 0.05 → -4 880 $UShigh value: 0.4 → -6 023 $USFinancing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → -5 151 $UShigh value: 0.12 → -5 620 $USWage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → -5 429 $UShigh value: 0.0636 → -5 309 $USElectricity price per kWhlow value: 0.08 → -5 364 $UShigh value: 0.3 → -5 382 $US-5 370 $USlow valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Estimations modélisées par Whirrwork, pas des faits.

ChartCoût humain par unité (Base), Coût robot par unité (Base), Coût robot par unité (Robots : progrès rapide), Coût robot par unité (Robots : progrès lent). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 $US50,00 $US100 $US2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / visitscenario rangeCoût humain par unité (Base)Coût robot par unité (Base)Coût robot par unité (Robots : pr…Coût robot par unité (Robots : pr…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/snow-removal/). Modelled estimate, no…

Année de bascule: pas d’ici 2035

What the spreadsheet misses

Sécurité
Shovelling is a known cardiac risk for older people; that, not cost, is the strongest case here.
Qualité
Clears little and often, so snow never piles up.
Flexibilité
A service brings a plough for big storms.
Edge cases
Heavy, wet or very deep snow; gravel drives.
Customer experience
Wakes nobody at 5 a.m. (unless it beeps).
Jobs and redeployment
Seasonal snow contractors lose small driveways first.
Réglementation
None; keep it off public sidewalks unless your town allows it.

Voir aussi

Sources de cette page

Les notes et les sources sont en anglais ; la version anglaise fait foi.

  1. Snow removal: driveway $30-$70 per visit (standard driveway up to 90 ft) HomeGuide, 2026
  2. Yarbo Y40P Core with Snow Blower Module Gen 2: $7,299 Yarbo US store, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013