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ロボットか人か？

Hospital deliveries

Porter / orderly making runs vs Autonomous hospital delivery robot (TUG-class)

Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。 方法論 · 予測の検証記録

人 · 年額$255,923Porter runs
ロボット · 年額$151,985Lease delivery robots
回収期間3 か月
逆転する年すでにBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

アメリカ合衆国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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作業量
仮定

Deliveries per day (meds, linens, specimens, meals).

仮定

Operating hours per day.

仮定

Every day.

仮定

Months per year.

人員
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 31-1132.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

仮定

Deliveries per porter-hour including waiting for lifts.

ロボット
仮定

Robot deliveries per hour relative to a porter (slower, but no breaks).

算出値 Becker's Hospital Review via Aethon

Midpoint of $75,000-$140,000 purchase prices reported in 2015.

算出値 The Wall Street Journal via Aethon

Midpoint of $1,500-$2,000/month lease reported in 2014-2015. Old figures: ask for a current quote.

仮定

Lift and door interfaces, Wi-Fi survey, charging bays. Often the hardest part in older buildings.

仮定

Yearly service contract share of price (owned).

仮定

Useful life in years.

仮定

Availability after charging.

仮定

Runs lost to faults.

仮定

Deliveries that stay human: STAT runs, patient-facing handovers, odd items.

仮定

Staff minutes per robot-hour loading and unloading (beyond what a porter run also needs).

仮定

kWh per robot-hour.

仮定

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

資金
仮定

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

仮定

Years in the NPV comparison.

仮定

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

仮定

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

仮定

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

結果

選択肢月額年額Per unit (delivery)初期費用回収期間Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
人 Porter runs 比較の基準 $21,327$255,923$8.77— — — —
ロボット Buy delivery robots
Robots needed: 2
 $14,398$172,780$5.92$240,000 22 か月 31%
Utilisation 69%
 $384,462
ロボット Lease delivery robots
Robots needed: 2
 $12,665$151,985$5.21$25,000 2.8 か月 21%
Utilisation 69%
 $473,978

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease delivery robots5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease delivery robotsWorkloadlow value: 30 → $140,540high value: 300 → $1,975,630Human output per hourlow value: 2 → $723,468high value: 5 → $291,648Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → $665,862high value: 0.5 → $368,402Hourly wagelow value: 14.728000000000002 → $339,135high value: 22.092 → $608,822Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → $326,255high value: 1.2 → $594,406Supervisionlow value: 3 → $523,846high value: 15 → $324,374Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → $403,207high value: 1.579 → $544,750Lease per robot per monthlow value: 1500 → $498,638high value: 2500 → $400,001Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → $512,975high value: 0.12 → $427,772$473,978low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。

Chart単位あたりの人件費 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.$0.00$2.50$5.00$7.50$10.002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / deliveryscenario range単位あたりの人件費 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimat…

逆転する年: すでに

What the spreadsheet misses

安全性
Locked drawers with fingerprint access improve chain of custody for controlled drugs.
品質
One hospital reported delivery reliability up 23% (WSJ, 2014).
柔軟性
Porters also move patients, which these robots never do.
Edge cases
Busy lifts and corridors, old buildings without automated doors.
Customer experience
Staff get used to them quickly; patients barely notice.
Jobs and redeployment
Usually framed as freeing nurses from fetching; porter roles shift to patient transport.
規制
Medication handling rules; fire-door and lift integration needs facilities sign-off.

関連

このページの出典

注記と出典は英語です。英語版が正式な版です。

  1. Hospitals have purchased TUGs for $75,000-$140,000; leases $1,500-$2,000/month (Becker's Hospital Review, reproduced by Aethon) Becker's Hospital Review via Aethon, 2015-03-31
  2. Tug robots leased for $1,500-$2,000 a month; University of Maryland Medical Center per-trip cost $2.40 by robot vs $5.50 by hand (WSJ, Feb 2014, reproduced by Aethon) The Wall Street Journal via Aethon, 2014-02-23
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013