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Roboter oder Mensch?

Hospital deliveries

Porter / orderly making runs vs Autonomous hospital delivery robot (TUG-class)

Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten. Methodik · Trefferbilanz

Mensch · Pro Jahr255.923 $Porter runs
Roboter · Pro Jahr151.985 $Lease delivery robots
Amortisation3 Monate
Jahr der KostenwendebereitsBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

Vereinigte Staaten · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

Mit eigenen Zahlen rechnen

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Arbeitsmenge
Annahme

Deliveries per day (meds, linens, specimens, meals).

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Operating hours per day.

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Every day.

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Months per year.

Personal
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 31-1132.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Annahme

Deliveries per porter-hour including waiting for lifts.

Roboter
Annahme

Robot deliveries per hour relative to a porter (slower, but no breaks).

Abgeleitet Becker's Hospital Review via Aethon

Midpoint of $75,000-$140,000 purchase prices reported in 2015.

Abgeleitet The Wall Street Journal via Aethon

Midpoint of $1,500-$2,000/month lease reported in 2014-2015. Old figures: ask for a current quote.

Annahme

Lift and door interfaces, Wi-Fi survey, charging bays. Often the hardest part in older buildings.

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Yearly service contract share of price (owned).

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Useful life in years.

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Availability after charging.

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Runs lost to faults.

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Deliveries that stay human: STAT runs, patient-facing handovers, odd items.

Annahme

Staff minutes per robot-hour loading and unloading (beyond what a porter run also needs).

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kWh per robot-hour.

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Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanzen
Annahme

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

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Years in the NPV comparison.

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Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Annahme

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Annahme

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Ergebnisse

OptionPro MonatPro JahrPer unit (delivery)EinmalkostenAmortisationBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Mensch Porter runs Vergleichsbasis 21.327 $255.923 $8,77 $— — — —
Roboter Buy delivery robots
Robots needed: 2
 14.398 $172.780 $5,92 $240.000 $ 22 Monate 31 %
Utilisation 69 %
 384.462 $
Roboter Lease delivery robots
Robots needed: 2
 12.665 $151.985 $5,21 $25.000 $ 2.8 Monate 21 %
Utilisation 69 %
 473.978 $

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease delivery robots5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease delivery robotsWorkloadlow value: 30 → 140.540 $high value: 300 → 1.975.630 $Human output per hourlow value: 2 → 723.468 $high value: 5 → 291.648 $Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → 665.862 $high value: 0.5 → 368.402 $Hourly wagelow value: 14.728000000000002 → 339.135 $high value: 22.092 → 608.822 $Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → 326.255 $high value: 1.2 → 594.406 $Supervisionlow value: 3 → 523.846 $high value: 15 → 324.374 $Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → 403.207 $high value: 1.579 → 544.750 $Lease per robot per monthlow value: 1500 → 498.638 $high value: 2500 → 400.001 $Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → 512.975 $high value: 0.12 → 427.772 $473.978 $low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten.

ChartPersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: schneller Fortschritt), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: langsamer Fortschritt). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 $2,50 $5,00 $7,50 $10,00 $2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / deliveryscenario rangePersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimat…

Jahr der Kostenwende: bereits

What the spreadsheet misses

Sicherheit
Locked drawers with fingerprint access improve chain of custody for controlled drugs.
Qualität
One hospital reported delivery reliability up 23% (WSJ, 2014).
Flexibilität
Porters also move patients, which these robots never do.
Edge cases
Busy lifts and corridors, old buildings without automated doors.
Customer experience
Staff get used to them quickly; patients barely notice.
Jobs and redeployment
Usually framed as freeing nurses from fetching; porter roles shift to patient transport.
Regulierung
Medication handling rules; fire-door and lift integration needs facilities sign-off.

Siehe auch

Quellen auf dieser Seite

Hinweise und Quellen sind auf Englisch; maßgeblich ist die englische Fassung.

  1. Hospitals have purchased TUGs for $75,000-$140,000; leases $1,500-$2,000/month (Becker's Hospital Review, reproduced by Aethon) Becker's Hospital Review via Aethon, 2015-03-31
  2. Tug robots leased for $1,500-$2,000 a month; University of Maryland Medical Center per-trip cost $2.40 by robot vs $5.50 by hand (WSJ, Feb 2014, reproduced by Aethon) The Wall Street Journal via Aethon, 2014-02-23
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013