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روبوت أم إنسان؟

Hospital deliveries

Porter / orderly making runs vs Autonomous hospital delivery robot (TUG-class)

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏٢٥٥٬٩٢٣ US$Porter runs
روبوت · سنويًا‏١٥١٬٩٨٥ US$Lease delivery robots
فترة الاسترداد3 أشهر
سنة التقاطعالآنBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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افتراض

Deliveries per day (meds, linens, specimens, meals).

افتراض

Operating hours per day.

افتراض

Every day.

افتراض

Months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 31-1132.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

Deliveries per porter-hour including waiting for lifts.

الروبوت
افتراض

Robot deliveries per hour relative to a porter (slower, but no breaks).

مشتق Becker's Hospital Review via Aethon

Midpoint of $75,000-$140,000 purchase prices reported in 2015.

مشتق The Wall Street Journal via Aethon

Midpoint of $1,500-$2,000/month lease reported in 2014-2015. Old figures: ask for a current quote.

افتراض

Lift and door interfaces, Wi-Fi survey, charging bays. Often the hardest part in older buildings.

افتراض

Yearly service contract share of price (owned).

افتراض

Useful life in years.

افتراض

Availability after charging.

افتراض

Runs lost to faults.

افتراض

Deliveries that stay human: STAT runs, patient-facing handovers, odd items.

افتراض

Staff minutes per robot-hour loading and unloading (beyond what a porter run also needs).

افتراض

kWh per robot-hour.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (delivery)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Porter runs خط الأساس ‏٢١٬٣٢٧ US$‏٢٥٥٬٩٢٣ US$‏٨٫٧٧ US$— — — —
روبوت Buy delivery robots
Robots needed: 2
 ‏١٤٬٣٩٨ US$‏١٧٢٬٧٨٠ US$‏٥٫٩٢ US$‏٢٤٠٬٠٠٠ US$ 22 أشهر ٣١٪؜
Utilisation ٦٩٪؜
 ‏٣٨٤٬٤٦٢ US$
روبوت Lease delivery robots
Robots needed: 2
 ‏١٢٬٦٦٥ US$‏١٥١٬٩٨٥ US$‏٥٫٢١ US$‏٢٥٬٠٠٠ US$ 2.8 أشهر ٢١٪؜
Utilisation ٦٩٪؜
 ‏٤٧٣٬٩٧٨ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease delivery robots5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease delivery robotsWorkloadlow value: 30 → ‏١٤٠٬٥٤٠ US$high value: 300 → ‏١٬٩٧٥٬٦٣٠ US$Human output per hourlow value: 2 → ‏٧٢٣٬٤٦٨ US$high value: 5 → ‏٢٩١٬٦٤٨ US$Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → ‏٦٦٥٬٨٦٢ US$high value: 0.5 → ‏٣٦٨٬٤٠٢ US$Hourly wagelow value: 14.728000000000002 → ‏٣٣٩٬١٣٥ US$high value: 22.092 → ‏٦٠٨٬٨٢٢ US$Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → ‏٣٢٦٬٢٥٥ US$high value: 1.2 → ‏٥٩٤٬٤٠٦ US$Supervisionlow value: 3 → ‏٥٢٣٬٨٤٦ US$high value: 15 → ‏٣٢٤٬٣٧٤ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ‏٤٠٣٬٢٠٧ US$high value: 1.579 → ‏٥٤٤٬٧٥٠ US$Lease per robot per monthlow value: 1500 → ‏٤٩٨٬٦٣٨ US$high value: 2500 → ‏٤٠٠٬٠٠١ US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → ‏٥١٢٬٩٧٥ US$high value: 0.12 → ‏٤٢٧٬٧٧٢ US$‏٤٧٣٬٩٧٨ US$low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏٢٫٥٠ US$‏٥٫٠٠ US$‏٧٫٥٠ US$‏١٠٫٠٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / deliveryscenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/hospital-delivery/). Modelled estimat…

سنة التقاطع: الآن

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Locked drawers with fingerprint access improve chain of custody for controlled drugs.
الجودة
One hospital reported delivery reliability up 23% (WSJ, 2014).
المرونة
Porters also move patients, which these robots never do.
Edge cases
Busy lifts and corridors, old buildings without automated doors.
Customer experience
Staff get used to them quickly; patients barely notice.
Jobs and redeployment
Usually framed as freeing nurses from fetching; porter roles shift to patient transport.
التنظيم
Medication handling rules; fire-door and lift integration needs facilities sign-off.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Hospitals have purchased TUGs for $75,000-$140,000; leases $1,500-$2,000/month (Becker's Hospital Review, reproduced by Aethon) Becker's Hospital Review via Aethon, 2015-03-31
  2. Tug robots leased for $1,500-$2,000 a month; University of Maryland Medical Center per-trip cost $2.40 by robot vs $5.50 by hand (WSJ, Feb 2014, reproduced by Aethon) The Wall Street Journal via Aethon, 2014-02-23
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013