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¿Robot o humano?

CNC / injection machine tending

Operator loading and unloading a machine vs Cobot machine tending cell

Estimaciones modeladas por Whirrwork, no hechos. Metodología · Historial de aciertos

Humano · Al año119.635 US$Operator tending
Robot · Al año45.523 US$Buy a cobot cell
Plazo de recuperación11 meses
Año de cruceyaBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

Estados Unidos · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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Carga de trabajo
Supuesto

Hours per day the machine needs tending.

Supuesto

Shift hours per day.

Supuesto

Working days per month.

Supuesto

Months per year.

Personal
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7063.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Supuesto

One operator-hour.

Robot
Supuesto

The machine cycle sets the pace, so one robot-hour covers one operator-hour.

Calculado Automation Distribution

Midpoint of UR5e arm listings $39,083-$43,544 (arm only).

Plastics Machinery & Manufacturing

Reported RaaS rate for a six-axis machine-tending robot, per robot-hour (provider handles integration).

Supuesto THG Automation (integrator)

Gripper, fixtures, safety, guarding, programming. Integrators say the arm is often half or less of the total.

THG Automation (integrator)

Integrator rule of thumb: 3-5% of system price per year.

Supuesto

Useful life in years.

Supuesto

Availability.

Supuesto

Hours lost to faults and jams.

Supuesto

Changeovers, first-article checks and odd parts that need a person.

Supuesto

Operator minutes per robot-hour (loading trays, inspections, restarts).

Supuesto

kWh per robot-hour.

Supuesto

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanzas
Supuesto

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Supuesto

Years in the NPV comparison.

Supuesto

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Supuesto

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Supuesto

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Resultados

OpciónAl mesAl añoPer unit (tending hour)Inversión inicialPlazo de recuperaciónBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Humano Operator tending Referencia 9970 US$119.635 US$28,32 US$— — — —
Robot Buy a cobot cell 3794 US$45.523 US$10,78 US$81.314 US$ 11 meses 17 %
Utilisation 98 %
 322.817 US$
Robot Robot by the hour (RaaS) 6225 US$74.698 US$17,68 US$40.000 US$ 9.2 meses 13 %
Utilisation 98 %
 204.283 US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot cell5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot cellWorkloadlow value: 8 → 122.555 US$high value: 24 → 485.372 US$Hourly wagelow value: 15.856000000000002 → 242.571 US$high value: 23.784 → 403.062 US$Supervisionlow value: 3 → 362.780 US$high value: 20 → 226.906 US$Integration and setuplow value: 15000 → 347.817 US$high value: 120000 → 242.817 US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → 280.701 US$high value: 1.579 → 364.933 US$Work that stays humanlow value: 0.05 → 307.361 US$high value: 0.3 → 233.812 US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → 354.904 US$high value: 0.12 → 284.885 US$Robot purchase pricelow value: 25000 → 337.706 US$high value: 60000 → 305.762 US$Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → 308.284 US$high value: 0.0636 → 337.907 US$322.817 US$low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/machine-tending/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Estimaciones modeladas por Whirrwork, no hechos.

ChartCosto humano por unidad (Base), Costo del robot por unidad (Base), Costo del robot por unidad (Robots: avance rápido), Costo del robot por unidad (Robots: avance lento). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/machine-tending/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 US$10,00 US$20,00 US$30,00 US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / tending hourscenario rangeCosto humano por unidad (Base)Costo del robot por unidad (Base)Costo del robot por unidad (Robot…Costo del robot por unidad (Robot…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/machine-tending/). Modelled estimate,…

Año de cruce: ya

What the spreadsheet misses

Seguridad
Removes repetitive reaching into machines; risk assessment is still required for cobots.
Calidad
Consistent load positions; fewer scrapped parts from mis-seating.
Flexibilidad
High-mix, low-volume shops pay for every changeover.
Edge cases
Chips, coolant and parts that tangle defeat grippers.
Customer experience
Lights-out second shifts shorten lead times.
Jobs and redeployment
Operators become cell technicians; the evidence on robots and local employment is mixed and depends on sector (see our insights).
Regulación
ISO 10218 and ISO/TS 15066 for collaborative operation; CE marking in the EU.

Relacionado

Fuentes de esta página

Las notas y las fuentes están en inglés; la versión en inglés es la de referencia.

  1. Universal Robots UR5e cobot arm $39,083-$43,544 (US distributor listing) Automation Distribution, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Cobot welding price breakdown: integration/commissioning $15,000-$40,000; base system 50-60% of total investment; maintenance 3-5% per year THG Automation (integrator), 2026 · vendor
  3. RaaS machine tending: six-axis robot at about $10 per hour (Formic) Plastics Machinery & Manufacturing, 2026-10
  4. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  5. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  6. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  7. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  8. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  9. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  10. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  11. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  12. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  13. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  14. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013