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روبوت أم إنسان؟

CNC / injection machine tending

Operator loading and unloading a machine vs Cobot machine tending cell

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏١١٩٬٦٣٥ US$Operator tending
روبوت · سنويًا‏٤٥٬٥٢٣ US$Buy a cobot cell
فترة الاسترداد11 أشهر
سنة التقاطعالآنBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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حجم العمل
افتراض

Hours per day the machine needs tending.

افتراض

Shift hours per day.

افتراض

Working days per month.

افتراض

Months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7063.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

One operator-hour.

الروبوت
افتراض

The machine cycle sets the pace, so one robot-hour covers one operator-hour.

مشتق Automation Distribution

Midpoint of UR5e arm listings $39,083-$43,544 (arm only).

Plastics Machinery & Manufacturing

Reported RaaS rate for a six-axis machine-tending robot, per robot-hour (provider handles integration).

افتراض THG Automation (integrator)

Gripper, fixtures, safety, guarding, programming. Integrators say the arm is often half or less of the total.

THG Automation (integrator)

Integrator rule of thumb: 3-5% of system price per year.

افتراض

Useful life in years.

افتراض

Availability.

افتراض

Hours lost to faults and jams.

افتراض

Changeovers, first-article checks and odd parts that need a person.

افتراض

Operator minutes per robot-hour (loading trays, inspections, restarts).

افتراض

kWh per robot-hour.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (tending hour)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Operator tending خط الأساس ‏٩٬٩٧٠ US$‏١١٩٬٦٣٥ US$‏٢٨٫٣٢ US$— — — —
روبوت Buy a cobot cell ‏٣٬٧٩٤ US$‏٤٥٬٥٢٣ US$‏١٠٫٧٨ US$‏٨١٬٣١٤ US$ 11 أشهر ١٧٪؜
Utilisation ٩٨٪؜
 ‏٣٢٢٬٨١٧ US$
روبوت Robot by the hour (RaaS) ‏٦٬٢٢٥ US$‏٧٤٬٦٩٨ US$‏١٧٫٦٨ US$‏٤٠٬٠٠٠ US$ 9.2 أشهر ١٣٪؜
Utilisation ٩٨٪؜
 ‏٢٠٤٬٢٨٣ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot cell5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot cellWorkloadlow value: 8 → ‏١٢٢٬٥٥٥ US$high value: 24 → ‏٤٨٥٬٣٧٢ US$Hourly wagelow value: 15.856000000000002 → ‏٢٤٢٬٥٧١ US$high value: 23.784 → ‏٤٠٣٬٠٦٢ US$Supervisionlow value: 3 → ‏٣٦٢٬٧٨٠ US$high value: 20 → ‏٢٢٦٬٩٠٦ US$Integration and setuplow value: 15000 → ‏٣٤٧٬٨١٧ US$high value: 120000 → ‏٢٤٢٬٨١٧ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ‏٢٨٠٬٧٠١ US$high value: 1.579 → ‏٣٦٤٬٩٣٣ US$Work that stays humanlow value: 0.05 → ‏٣٠٧٬٣٦١ US$high value: 0.3 → ‏٢٣٣٬٨١٢ US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → ‏٣٥٤٬٩٠٤ US$high value: 0.12 → ‏٢٨٤٬٨٨٥ US$Robot purchase pricelow value: 25000 → ‏٣٣٧٬٧٠٦ US$high value: 60000 → ‏٣٠٥٬٧٦٢ US$Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → ‏٣٠٨٬٢٨٤ US$high value: 0.0636 → ‏٣٣٧٬٩٠٧ US$‏٣٢٢٬٨١٧ US$low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/machine-tending/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/machine-tending/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏١٠٫٠٠ US$‏٢٠٫٠٠ US$‏٣٠٫٠٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / tending hourscenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/machine-tending/). Modelled estimate,…

سنة التقاطع: الآن

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Removes repetitive reaching into machines; risk assessment is still required for cobots.
الجودة
Consistent load positions; fewer scrapped parts from mis-seating.
المرونة
High-mix, low-volume shops pay for every changeover.
Edge cases
Chips, coolant and parts that tangle defeat grippers.
Customer experience
Lights-out second shifts shorten lead times.
Jobs and redeployment
Operators become cell technicians; the evidence on robots and local employment is mixed and depends on sector (see our insights).
التنظيم
ISO 10218 and ISO/TS 15066 for collaborative operation; CE marking in the EU.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Universal Robots UR5e cobot arm $39,083-$43,544 (US distributor listing) Automation Distribution, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Cobot welding price breakdown: integration/commissioning $15,000-$40,000; base system 50-60% of total investment; maintenance 3-5% per year THG Automation (integrator), 2026 · vendor
  3. RaaS machine tending: six-axis robot at about $10 per hour (Formic) Plastics Machinery & Manufacturing, 2026-10
  4. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  5. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  6. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  7. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  8. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  9. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  10. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  11. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  12. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  13. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  14. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013