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机器人还是人工？

Commercial mowing

Crew member on a commercial ride-on mower vs Autonomous commercial mower (lease)

Whirrwork 模型估算，并非事实。 方法说明 · 预测记录

人工 · 每年US$28,400Crew on a ride-on
机器人 · 每年US$40,379Lease an autonomous mower
回收期永不
成本交叉年份2035年前不会Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper. Even running flat out, one robot would not displace enough work to pay for itself.

美国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

用你自己的数字计算

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

工作量
假设

Acres mowed per working day across your sites.

假设

Hours per day the mower may run.

假设

Working days per month.

假设

Mowing months per year.

人员
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

假设

Acres per hour for an experienced operator on a commercial zero-turn mower.

假设

Your mower's fuel and ownership cost per hour. Default 0 ignores it.

机器人
假设

Autonomous mower acres per hour relative to a person.

Scythe Robotics

Scythe M.52 Standard lease from $1,800/month (includes 40 autonomous acres; more acres cost more).

假设

Site mapping and crew training.

假设

Lease term in years.

假设

Availability.

假设

Work lost to faults.

假设

Trimming, slopes and obstacles a person still handles.

假设

Crew minutes per robot-hour: transport, supervision while it mows nearby.

假设

kWh per robot-hour.

假设

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

资金
假设

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

假设

Years in the NPV comparison.

假设

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

假设

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

假设

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

结果

方案每月每年Per unit (acre)前期投入回收期Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
人工 Crew on a ride-on 比较基准 US$2,367US$28,400US$13.45— — — —
机器人 Lease an autonomous mower US$3,365US$40,379US$19.12US$1,000 永不 not reachable
Utilisation 76%
 -US$45,020

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease an autonomous mower5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease an autonomous mowerRobot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → -US$152,700high value: 1 → -US$30,840Supervisionlow value: 10 → -US$22,433high value: 60 → -US$135,369Workloadlow value: 5 → -US$71,126high value: 40 → -US$118,142Human equipment cost per hourlow value: 0 → -US$45,020high value: 15 → US$856Human output per hourlow value: 1.2 → -US$103,957high value: 3 → -US$59,938Active months per yearlow value: 6 → -US$56,208high value: 11 → -US$28,237Lease per robot per monthlow value: 1800 → -US$45,020high value: 2200 → -US$64,747Hourly wagelow value: 15.056000000000001 → -US$54,389high value: 22.584 → -US$35,651Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → -US$36,069high value: 0.4 → -US$53,970-US$45,0200low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/commercial-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork 模型估算，并非事实。

Chart单位人工成本 (基准), 单位机器人成本 (基准), 单位机器人成本 (机器人进步快), 单位机器人成本 (机器人进步慢). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/commercial-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$5.00US$10.00US$15.00US$20.002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / acrescenario range单位人工成本 (基准)单位机器人成本 (基准)单位机器人成本 (机器人进步快)单位机器人成本 (机器人进步慢)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/commercial-mowing/). Modelled estimat…

成本交叉年份: 2035年前不会

What the spreadsheet misses

安全
Mower injuries and heat stress are real; a robot takes the operator off the seat.
质量
Consistent stripes; trimming still manual.
灵活性
Crews move between sites fast; robots need transport and maps.
Edge cases
Public parks with people and dogs need supervision.
Customer experience
Quiet electric mowers allow early or late work.
Jobs and redeployment
Crews shift to trimming, planting and supervision; labour shortages are the usual driver.
法规
Check local rules for unattended machines in public spaces.

相关内容

本页来源

说明和来源为英文；以英文版为准。

  1. Scythe M.52 autonomous commercial mower lease from $1,800/month (Standard, incl. 40 autonomous acres) Scythe Robotics, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013