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روبوت أم إنسان؟

Commercial mowing

Crew member on a commercial ride-on mower vs Autonomous commercial mower (lease)

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏٢٨٬٤٠٠ US$Crew on a ride-on
روبوت · سنويًا‏٤٠٬٣٧٩ US$Lease an autonomous mower
فترة الاستردادأبدًا
سنة التقاطعليس قبل 2035Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper. Even running flat out, one robot would not displace enough work to pay for itself.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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افتراض

Acres mowed per working day across your sites.

افتراض

Hours per day the mower may run.

افتراض

Working days per month.

افتراض

Mowing months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-3011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

Acres per hour for an experienced operator on a commercial zero-turn mower.

افتراض

Your mower's fuel and ownership cost per hour. Default 0 ignores it.

الروبوت
افتراض

Autonomous mower acres per hour relative to a person.

Scythe Robotics

Scythe M.52 Standard lease from $1,800/month (includes 40 autonomous acres; more acres cost more).

افتراض

Site mapping and crew training.

افتراض

Lease term in years.

افتراض

Availability.

افتراض

Work lost to faults.

افتراض

Trimming, slopes and obstacles a person still handles.

افتراض

Crew minutes per robot-hour: transport, supervision while it mows nearby.

افتراض

kWh per robot-hour.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (acre)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Crew on a ride-on خط الأساس ‏٢٬٣٦٧ US$‏٢٨٬٤٠٠ US$‏١٣٫٤٥ US$— — — —
روبوت Lease an autonomous mower ‏٣٬٣٦٥ US$‏٤٠٬٣٧٩ US$‏١٩٫١٢ US$‏١٬٠٠٠ US$ أبدًا not reachable
Utilisation ٧٦٪؜
 ؜-‏٤٥٬٠٢٠ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease an autonomous mower5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease an autonomous mowerRobot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → ؜-‏١٥٢٬٧٠٠ US$high value: 1 → ؜-‏٣٠٬٨٤٠ US$Supervisionlow value: 10 → ؜-‏٢٢٬٤٣٣ US$high value: 60 → ؜-‏١٣٥٬٣٦٩ US$Workloadlow value: 5 → ؜-‏٧١٬١٢٦ US$high value: 40 → ؜-‏١١٨٬١٤٢ US$Human equipment cost per hourlow value: 0 → ؜-‏٤٥٬٠٢٠ US$high value: 15 → ‏٨٥٦ US$Human output per hourlow value: 1.2 → ؜-‏١٠٣٬٩٥٧ US$high value: 3 → ؜-‏٥٩٬٩٣٨ US$Active months per yearlow value: 6 → ؜-‏٥٦٬٢٠٨ US$high value: 11 → ؜-‏٢٨٬٢٣٧ US$Lease per robot per monthlow value: 1800 → ؜-‏٤٥٬٠٢٠ US$high value: 2200 → ؜-‏٦٤٬٧٤٧ US$Hourly wagelow value: 15.056000000000001 → ؜-‏٥٤٬٣٨٩ US$high value: 22.584 → ؜-‏٣٥٬٦٥١ US$Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → ؜-‏٣٦٬٠٦٩ US$high value: 0.4 → ؜-‏٥٣٬٩٧٠ US$؜-‏٤٥٬٠٢٠ US$0low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/commercial-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/commercial-mowing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏٥٫٠٠ US$‏١٠٫٠٠ US$‏١٥٫٠٠ US$‏٢٠٫٠٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / acrescenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/commercial-mowing/). Modelled estimat…

سنة التقاطع: ليس قبل 2035

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Mower injuries and heat stress are real; a robot takes the operator off the seat.
الجودة
Consistent stripes; trimming still manual.
المرونة
Crews move between sites fast; robots need transport and maps.
Edge cases
Public parks with people and dogs need supervision.
Customer experience
Quiet electric mowers allow early or late work.
Jobs and redeployment
Crews shift to trimming, planting and supervision; labour shortages are the usual driver.
التنظيم
Check local rules for unattended machines in public spaces.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Scythe M.52 autonomous commercial mower lease from $1,800/month (Standard, incl. 40 autonomous acres) Scythe Robotics, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013