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로봇일까, 사람일까?

End-of-line palletizing

Packer stacking cases by hand vs Cobot palletizing cell

Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다. 방법론 · 예측 검증 기록

사람 · 연간US$78,952Hand stacking
로봇 · 연간US$31,287Buy a palletizing cell
투자 회수 기간20 개월
비용 역전 연도이미Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

미국 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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작업량
가정

Cases stacked per day.

가정

Line hours per day.

가정

Working days per month.

가정

Months per year.

인력
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7064.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

가정

Cases per person-hour (light cases; heavy ones are slower and harder on backs).

로봇
가정

Robot cases per hour relative to a person.

RobotPalletizer.com PicPac USA

Turnkey FANUC CRX palletizing cell, starting price ($119,850 for a competitor cell).

가정

Conveyor tie-in, safety scanners, pattern programming.

가정

Yearly maintenance share of price.

가정

Useful life in years.

가정

Availability (pallet changes).

가정

Output lost to faults.

가정

Mixed or damaged cases stacked by hand.

가정

Operator minutes per robot-hour (pallet swaps, slip sheets).

가정

kWh per robot-hour.

가정

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

자금
가정

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

가정

Years in the NPV comparison.

가정

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

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Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

가정

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

결과

옵션월간연간Per unit (case)초기 비용투자 회수 기간Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
사람 Hand stacking 비교 기준 US$6,579US$78,952US$0.10— — — —
로봇 Buy a palletizing cell US$2,607US$31,287US$0.04US$104,750 20 개월 18%
Utilisation 64%
 US$210,238

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a palletizing cell5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a palletizing cellWorkloadlow value: 1000 → US$11,061high value: 10000 → US$750,304Human output per hourlow value: 150 → US$330,888high value: 400 → US$98,201Hourly wagelow value: 13.952000000000002 → US$150,330high value: 20.928 → US$270,146Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → US$178,796high value: 1.579 → US$241,680Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$237,259high value: 0.12 → US$178,547Robot purchase pricelow value: 94750 → US$210,238high value: 150000 → US$164,448Integration and setuplow value: 3000 → US$217,238high value: 30000 → US$190,238Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.8 → US$195,933high value: 2 → US$221,683Useful life or contractlow value: 7 → US$196,610high value: 15 → US$220,838US$210,2380low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/palletizing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다.

Chart단위당 인건비 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/palletizing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$0.025US$0.05US$0.075US$0.102026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / casescenario range단위당 인건비 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/palletizing/). Modelled estimate, not…

비용 역전 연도: 이미

What the spreadsheet misses

안전
Repetitive lifting is a classic back-injury job; this is the strongest non-cost case on the list.
품질
Tidier, more stable pallets.
유연성
Frequent SKU changes need easy pattern setup (cobots are good at this).
Edge cases
Bags, irregular or very heavy cases need special grippers.
Customer experience
Fewer damaged shipments.
Jobs and redeployment
High turnover on these roles means automation often fills vacancies rather than replacing people.
규제
ISO 10218; area scanners for collaborative cells.

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참고 사항과 출처는 영어로 제공되며 영어판이 기준입니다.

  1. Turnkey FANUC CRX cobot palletizing cell, from $94,750 RobotPalletizer.com, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Complete cobot palletizer cell $119,850 PicPac USA, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013