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روبوت أم إنسان؟

End-of-line palletizing

Packer stacking cases by hand vs Cobot palletizing cell

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏٧٨٬٩٥٢ US$Hand stacking
روبوت · سنويًا‏٣١٬٢٨٧ US$Buy a palletizing cell
فترة الاسترداد20 أشهر
سنة التقاطعالآنBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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افتراض

Cases stacked per day.

افتراض

Line hours per day.

افتراض

Working days per month.

افتراض

Months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7064.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

Cases per person-hour (light cases; heavy ones are slower and harder on backs).

الروبوت
افتراض

Robot cases per hour relative to a person.

RobotPalletizer.com PicPac USA

Turnkey FANUC CRX palletizing cell, starting price ($119,850 for a competitor cell).

افتراض

Conveyor tie-in, safety scanners, pattern programming.

افتراض

Yearly maintenance share of price.

افتراض

Useful life in years.

افتراض

Availability (pallet changes).

افتراض

Output lost to faults.

افتراض

Mixed or damaged cases stacked by hand.

افتراض

Operator minutes per robot-hour (pallet swaps, slip sheets).

افتراض

kWh per robot-hour.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (case)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Hand stacking خط الأساس ‏٦٬٥٧٩ US$‏٧٨٬٩٥٢ US$‏٠٫١٠ US$— — — —
روبوت Buy a palletizing cell ‏٢٬٦٠٧ US$‏٣١٬٢٨٧ US$‏٠٫٠٤ US$‏١٠٤٬٧٥٠ US$ 20 أشهر ١٨٪؜
Utilisation ٦٤٪؜
 ‏٢١٠٬٢٣٨ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a palletizing cell5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a palletizing cellWorkloadlow value: 1000 → ‏١١٬٠٦١ US$high value: 10000 → ‏٧٥٠٬٣٠٤ US$Human output per hourlow value: 150 → ‏٣٣٠٬٨٨٨ US$high value: 400 → ‏٩٨٬٢٠١ US$Hourly wagelow value: 13.952000000000002 → ‏١٥٠٬٣٣٠ US$high value: 20.928 → ‏٢٧٠٬١٤٦ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ‏١٧٨٬٧٩٦ US$high value: 1.579 → ‏٢٤١٬٦٨٠ US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → ‏٢٣٧٬٢٥٩ US$high value: 0.12 → ‏١٧٨٬٥٤٧ US$Robot purchase pricelow value: 94750 → ‏٢١٠٬٢٣٨ US$high value: 150000 → ‏١٦٤٬٤٤٨ US$Integration and setuplow value: 3000 → ‏٢١٧٬٢٣٨ US$high value: 30000 → ‏١٩٠٬٢٣٨ US$Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.8 → ‏١٩٥٬٩٣٣ US$high value: 2 → ‏٢٢١٬٦٨٣ US$Useful life or contractlow value: 7 → ‏١٩٦٬٦١٠ US$high value: 15 → ‏٢٢٠٬٨٣٨ US$‏٢١٠٬٢٣٨ US$0low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/palletizing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/palletizing/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏٠٫٠٢٥ US$‏٠٫٠٥ US$‏٠٫٠٧٥ US$‏٠٫١٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / casescenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/palletizing/). Modelled estimate, not…

سنة التقاطع: الآن

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Repetitive lifting is a classic back-injury job; this is the strongest non-cost case on the list.
الجودة
Tidier, more stable pallets.
المرونة
Frequent SKU changes need easy pattern setup (cobots are good at this).
Edge cases
Bags, irregular or very heavy cases need special grippers.
Customer experience
Fewer damaged shipments.
Jobs and redeployment
High turnover on these roles means automation often fills vacancies rather than replacing people.
التنظيم
ISO 10218; area scanners for collaborative cells.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Turnkey FANUC CRX cobot palletizing cell, from $94,750 RobotPalletizer.com, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Complete cobot palletizer cell $119,850 PicPac USA, 2026-10 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013