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로봇일까, 사람일까?

Pallet moving

Forklift or pallet-truck operator vs Autonomous pallet mover (AMR)

Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다. 방법론 · 예측 검증 기록

사람 · 연간US$140,339Operator with pallet truck
로봇 · 연간US$77,430Buy an AMR pallet mover
투자 회수 기간14 개월
비용 역전 연도이미Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

미국 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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작업량
가정

Pallet moves per day on fixed routes (dock to racking, line-side).

가정

Operating hours per day.

가정

Operating days per month.

가정

Active months per year.

인력
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7051.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

가정

Moves per operator-hour on these routes.

가정

Truck or forklift cost per operator-hour. Default 0 means the comparison ignores the forklift you might retire; add yours.

로봇
가정

AMR moves per hour relative to a person: slower travel, no shortcuts.

Jtec Products (dealer)

Big Joe Pallet Mover AMR list price, including deployment, training and 3-year software.

가정

Site prep, floor marking and change management on top of the vendor package.

가정

Yearly maintenance and software after the included period, share of price.

가정

Useful life in years.

가정

Availability after charging.

가정

Work lost to faults.

가정

Moves that need a person (damaged pallets, ad-hoc moves, trailers).

가정

Staff minutes per robot-hour (calling moves, clearing blockages).

가정

kWh per robot-hour.

가정

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

자금
가정

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

가정

Years in the NPV comparison.

가정

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

가정

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

가정

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

결과

옵션월간연간Per unit (pallet move)초기 비용투자 회수 기간Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
사람 Operator with pallet truck 비교 기준 US$11,695US$140,339US$2.66— — — —
로봇 Buy an AMR pallet mover
Robots needed: 2
 US$6,452US$77,430US$1.47US$95,000 14 개월 19%
Utilisation 66%
 US$288,884

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy an AMR pallet mover5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy an AMR pallet moverWorkloadlow value: 60 → US$62,740high value: 600 → US$978,777Human output per hourlow value: 8 → US$486,888high value: 20 → US$181,543Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → US$368,086high value: 0.5 → US$207,943Hourly wagelow value: 17.856 → US$209,101high value: 26.784 → US$368,667Supervisionlow value: 2 → US$322,369high value: 12 → US$210,753Human equipment cost per hourlow value: 0 → US$288,884high value: 8 → US$390,830Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → US$265,398high value: 1 → US$357,561Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → US$247,010high value: 1.579 → US$330,758Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$319,428high value: 0.12 → US$252,781US$288,884low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pallet-moving/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다.

Chart단위당 인건비 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pallet-moving/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$1.00US$2.00US$3.002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / pallet movescenario range단위당 인건비 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pallet-moving/). Modelled estimate, n…

비용 역전 연도: 이미

What the spreadsheet misses

안전
Forklifts are a leading cause of serious warehouse injuries; slow, sensor-limited AMRs on fixed routes reduce exposure.
품질
Predictable cycle times; fewer racking hits.
유연성
People handle trailers, damaged loads and odd jobs. AMRs want stable routes.
Edge cases
Mixed traffic and blocked aisles stop robots; fix the layout first.
Customer experience
Invisible.
Jobs and redeployment
Operators often move to exception handling and loading; budget retraining.
규제
ISO 3691-4 / ANSI B56.5 for driverless trucks; local workplace rules apply.

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  1. Big Joe Pallet Mover AMR brochure: $45,000 each incl. deployment, training, annual visit and 3-year software subscription Jtec Products (dealer), 2024-08-14 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013