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روبوت أم إنسان؟

Pallet moving

Forklift or pallet-truck operator vs Autonomous pallet mover (AMR)

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏١٤٠٬٣٣٩ US$Operator with pallet truck
روبوت · سنويًا‏٧٧٬٤٣٠ US$Buy an AMR pallet mover
فترة الاسترداد14 أشهر
سنة التقاطعالآنBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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افتراض

Pallet moves per day on fixed routes (dock to racking, line-side).

افتراض

Operating hours per day.

افتراض

Operating days per month.

افتراض

Active months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7051.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

Moves per operator-hour on these routes.

افتراض

Truck or forklift cost per operator-hour. Default 0 means the comparison ignores the forklift you might retire; add yours.

الروبوت
افتراض

AMR moves per hour relative to a person: slower travel, no shortcuts.

Jtec Products (dealer)

Big Joe Pallet Mover AMR list price, including deployment, training and 3-year software.

افتراض

Site prep, floor marking and change management on top of the vendor package.

افتراض

Yearly maintenance and software after the included period, share of price.

افتراض

Useful life in years.

افتراض

Availability after charging.

افتراض

Work lost to faults.

افتراض

Moves that need a person (damaged pallets, ad-hoc moves, trailers).

افتراض

Staff minutes per robot-hour (calling moves, clearing blockages).

افتراض

kWh per robot-hour.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (pallet move)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Operator with pallet truck خط الأساس ‏١١٬٦٩٥ US$‏١٤٠٬٣٣٩ US$‏٢٫٦٦ US$— — — —
روبوت Buy an AMR pallet mover
Robots needed: 2
 ‏٦٬٤٥٢ US$‏٧٧٬٤٣٠ US$‏١٫٤٧ US$‏٩٥٬٠٠٠ US$ 14 أشهر ١٩٪؜
Utilisation ٦٦٪؜
 ‏٢٨٨٬٨٨٤ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy an AMR pallet mover5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy an AMR pallet moverWorkloadlow value: 60 → ‏٦٢٬٧٤٠ US$high value: 600 → ‏٩٧٨٬٧٧٧ US$Human output per hourlow value: 8 → ‏٤٨٦٬٨٨٨ US$high value: 20 → ‏١٨١٬٥٤٣ US$Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → ‏٣٦٨٬٠٨٦ US$high value: 0.5 → ‏٢٠٧٬٩٤٣ US$Hourly wagelow value: 17.856 → ‏٢٠٩٬١٠١ US$high value: 26.784 → ‏٣٦٨٬٦٦٧ US$Supervisionlow value: 2 → ‏٣٢٢٬٣٦٩ US$high value: 12 → ‏٢١٠٬٧٥٣ US$Human equipment cost per hourlow value: 0 → ‏٢٨٨٬٨٨٤ US$high value: 8 → ‏٣٩٠٬٨٣٠ US$Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.5 → ‏٢٦٥٬٣٩٨ US$high value: 1 → ‏٣٥٧٬٥٦١ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ‏٢٤٧٬٠١٠ US$high value: 1.579 → ‏٣٣٠٬٧٥٨ US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → ‏٣١٩٬٤٢٨ US$high value: 0.12 → ‏٢٥٢٬٧٨١ US$‏٢٨٨٬٨٨٤ US$low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pallet-moving/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pallet-moving/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏١٫٠٠ US$‏٢٫٠٠ US$‏٣٫٠٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / pallet movescenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pallet-moving/). Modelled estimate, n…

سنة التقاطع: الآن

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Forklifts are a leading cause of serious warehouse injuries; slow, sensor-limited AMRs on fixed routes reduce exposure.
الجودة
Predictable cycle times; fewer racking hits.
المرونة
People handle trailers, damaged loads and odd jobs. AMRs want stable routes.
Edge cases
Mixed traffic and blocked aisles stop robots; fix the layout first.
Customer experience
Invisible.
Jobs and redeployment
Operators often move to exception handling and loading; budget retraining.
التنظيم
ISO 3691-4 / ANSI B56.5 for driverless trucks; local workplace rules apply.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Big Joe Pallet Mover AMR brochure: $45,000 each incl. deployment, training, annual visit and 3-year software subscription Jtec Products (dealer), 2024-08-14 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013