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ロボットか人か？

Pool cleaning

Weekly pool service vs Robotic pool cleaner (you still do chemistry)

Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。 方法論 · 予測の検証記録

人 · 年額$1,500Pool service
ロボット · 年額$1,156Buy a robotic cleaner
回収期間22 か月
逆転する年すでにBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

アメリカ合衆国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

自分の数字で計算する

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作業量
仮定

One month of pool care.

仮定

Robot cycle hours per day it runs.

仮定

Cleaning cycles per month.

仮定

Months the pool is open.

人員
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 37-2011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

価格
算出値 PoolRobots.com

Midpoint of $100-$150/month weekly professional service.

ロボット
仮定

A month of cleaning needs about 24 robot-hours (8 cycles of 3 hours).

算出値 Maytronics US store

Midpoint of $849-$1,449 mid-range Dolphin models.

仮定

Plug it in.

仮定

Yearly parts (filters, brushes, eventually a motor) as a share of price.

仮定

Useful life in years.

仮定

Availability.

仮定

Months lost to faults.

仮定

Share of the service you still need: water chemistry, filter and equipment checks. Many owners do these themselves (then set 0).

仮定

Your time is not costed.

仮定

kWh per robot-hour.

仮定

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

資金
仮定

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

仮定

Years in the NPV comparison.

仮定

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

仮定

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

仮定

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

結果

選択肢月額年額Per unit (month of service)初期費用回収期間Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
人 Pool service 比較の基準 $125$1,500$125— — — —
ロボット Buy a robotic cleaner $96.37$1,156$96.37$1,149 22 か月 27%
Utilisation 52%
 $1,596

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a robotic cleaner5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a robotic cleanerRobot purchase pricelow value: 849 → $1,994high value: 2999 → -$863Work that stays humanlow value: 0 → $3,191high value: 0.7 → $347Active months per yearlow value: 5 → -$226high value: 12 → $1,596Pool servicelow value: 100 → $968high value: 150 → $2,224Useful life or contractlow value: 3 → $948high value: 7 → $1,816Maintenance per yearlow value: 0.04 → $1,785high value: 0.15 → $1,265Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → $1,805high value: 0.12 → $1,347Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → $1,525high value: 0.0636 → $1,669Electricity price per kWhlow value: 0.08 → $1,604high value: 0.3 → $1,578$1,5960low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pool-cleaning/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrworkによるモデル推計であり、事実ではありません。

Chart単位あたりの人件費 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い), 単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pool-cleaning/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.$0.00$50.00$1002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / month of servicescenario range単位あたりの人件費 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (基本)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が速い)単位あたりのロボット費用 (ロボット：進歩が遅い)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/pool-cleaning/). Modelled estimate, n…

逆転する年: すでに

What the spreadsheet misses

安全性
Wrong water chemistry is the real risk; a cleaning robot does not test water.
品質
Robots scrub walls and floors well; leaves and debris loads vary.
柔軟性
A service catches failing pumps and leaks early.
Edge cases
Oddly shaped pools and steps defeat cheaper models.
Customer experience
No strangers in the garden every week.
Jobs and redeployment
Pool technicians keep chemistry and repairs; cleaning visits shrink.
規制
None for private pools; public pools have water-testing rules.

関連

このページの出典

注記と出典は英語です。英語版が正式な版です。

  1. Weekly professional pool service $100-$150 per month PoolRobots.com, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Maytronics Dolphin residential robotic pool cleaners $849-$1,449 (mid-range models) Maytronics US store, 2026-10-25 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013