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Robot atau manusia?

Welding

Manual MIG welder vs Cobot welding system (welder still loads and supervises)

Estimasi model Whirrwork, bukan fakta. Metodologi · Rekam jejak

Manusia · Per tahunUS$77.986Manual welder
Robot · Per tahunUS$64.428Buy a cobot welder
Masa balik modal42 bulan
Tahun titik temu biayasudahBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper. Payback is longer than three years, which is longer than many robot contracts and some robot companies.

Amerika Serikat · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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Beban kerja
Asumsi

Manual welding hours of work per day.

Asumsi

Shift hours per day.

Asumsi

Working days per month.

Asumsi

Months per year.

Tenaga kerja
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 51-4121.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Asumsi

One manual welding hour.

Robot
Asumsi Hirebotics

Output of one cobot-hour relative to a manual welder-hour. The vendor says most shops see 2-4x; we take the low end.

Hirebotics

Hirebotics Cobot Welder complete system, starting price.

Asumsi THG Automation (integrator)

Fixtures, guarding, training beyond the package. Integrators quote $15,000-$40,000 for un-packaged systems.

THG Automation (integrator)

3-5% of system price per year.

Asumsi

Useful life in years.

Asumsi

Arc-ready share of the shift (loading, tip changes).

Asumsi

Hours lost to faults.

Asumsi

Welds that stay manual: one-offs, awkward joints, repairs.

Asumsi

Welder minutes per robot-hour (fixturing, loading, inspecting). Cobot welding is a person plus a robot.

Asumsi

kWh per hour of welding.

Asumsi

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Keuangan
Asumsi

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Asumsi

Years in the NPV comparison.

Asumsi

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Asumsi

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Asumsi

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Hasil

OpsiPer bulanPer tahunPer unit (welding hour)Biaya awalMasa balik modalBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Manusia Manual welder Pembanding US$6.499US$77.986US$36,93— — — —
Robot Buy a cobot welder US$5.369US$64.428US$30,51US$120.000 42 bulan 27%
Utilisation 41%
 US$61.492

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot welder5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot welderWorkloadlow value: 4 → -US$24.670high value: 16 → US$233.817Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → US$110.728high value: 0.6 → -US$12.361Robot output vs a personlow value: 1.2 → US$19.146high value: 4 → US$93.251Robot purchase pricelow value: 80000 → US$84.309high value: 160000 → US$11.294Supervisionlow value: 15 → US$91.884high value: 50 → US$20.969Hourly wagelow value: 20.672 → US$26.480high value: 31.008 → US$96.504Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → US$43.117high value: 1.579 → US$79.868Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$77.769high value: 0.12 → US$42.483Integration and setuplow value: 5000 → US$71.492high value: 40000 → US$36.492US$61.4920low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/welding/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Estimasi model Whirrwork, bukan fakta.

ChartBiaya manusia per unit (Dasar), Biaya robot per unit (Dasar), Biaya robot per unit (Robot: kemajuan cepat), Biaya robot per unit (Robot: kemajuan lambat). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/welding/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0,00US$10,00US$20,00US$30,00US$40,002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / welding hourscenario rangeBiaya manusia per unit (Dasar)Biaya robot per unit (Dasar)Biaya robot per unit (Robot: kema…Biaya robot per unit (Robot: kema…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/welding/). Modelled estimate, not a f…

Tahun titik temu biaya: sudah

What the spreadsheet misses

Keselamatan
Less fume and arc exposure for the welder; fume extraction is still needed.
Kualitas
Repeatable beads on repeat parts; fixturing tolerance decides quality.
Fleksibilitas
Skilled welders handle the one-offs robots never will.
Edge cases
Poor part fit-up and short runs.
Customer experience
Shorter lead times on repeat orders.
Jobs and redeployment
Welder shortages are the usual reason; welders become programmers and inspectors.
Regulasi
Machinery safety rules; welding codes still require qualified procedures.

Terkait

Sumber di halaman ini

Catatan dan sumber berbahasa Inggris; versi bahasa Inggris menjadi acuan.

  1. Cobot Welder starting price $105,000 (complete system incl. UR8 Long, power source, torch, cart, software); "most shops see 2-4x the output" Hirebotics, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Cobot welding price breakdown: integration/commissioning $15,000-$40,000; base system 50-60% of total investment; maintenance 3-5% per year THG Automation (integrator), 2026 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013