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Welding

Manual MIG welder vs Cobot welding system (welder still loads and supervises)

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏٧٧٬٩٨٦ US$Manual welder
روبوت · سنويًا‏٦٤٬٤٢٨ US$Buy a cobot welder
فترة الاسترداد42 أشهر
سنة التقاطعالآنBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper. Payback is longer than three years, which is longer than many robot contracts and some robot companies.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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افتراض

Manual welding hours of work per day.

افتراض

Shift hours per day.

افتراض

Working days per month.

افتراض

Months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 51-4121.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

One manual welding hour.

الروبوت
افتراض Hirebotics

Output of one cobot-hour relative to a manual welder-hour. The vendor says most shops see 2-4x; we take the low end.

Hirebotics

Hirebotics Cobot Welder complete system, starting price.

افتراض THG Automation (integrator)

Fixtures, guarding, training beyond the package. Integrators quote $15,000-$40,000 for un-packaged systems.

THG Automation (integrator)

3-5% of system price per year.

افتراض

Useful life in years.

افتراض

Arc-ready share of the shift (loading, tip changes).

افتراض

Hours lost to faults.

افتراض

Welds that stay manual: one-offs, awkward joints, repairs.

افتراض

Welder minutes per robot-hour (fixturing, loading, inspecting). Cobot welding is a person plus a robot.

افتراض

kWh per hour of welding.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (welding hour)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Manual welder خط الأساس ‏٦٬٤٩٩ US$‏٧٧٬٩٨٦ US$‏٣٦٫٩٣ US$— — — —
روبوت Buy a cobot welder ‏٥٬٣٦٩ US$‏٦٤٬٤٢٨ US$‏٣٠٫٥١ US$‏١٢٠٬٠٠٠ US$ 42 أشهر ٢٧٪؜
Utilisation ٤١٪؜
 ‏٦١٬٤٩٢ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot welder5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a cobot welderWorkloadlow value: 4 → ؜-‏٢٤٬٦٧٠ US$high value: 16 → ‏٢٣٣٬٨١٧ US$Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → ‏١١٠٬٧٢٨ US$high value: 0.6 → ؜-‏١٢٬٣٦١ US$Robot output vs a personlow value: 1.2 → ‏١٩٬١٤٦ US$high value: 4 → ‏٩٣٬٢٥١ US$Robot purchase pricelow value: 80000 → ‏٨٤٬٣٠٩ US$high value: 160000 → ‏١١٬٢٩٤ US$Supervisionlow value: 15 → ‏٩١٬٨٨٤ US$high value: 50 → ‏٢٠٬٩٦٩ US$Hourly wagelow value: 20.672 → ‏٢٦٬٤٨٠ US$high value: 31.008 → ‏٩٦٬٥٠٤ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ‏٤٣٬١١٧ US$high value: 1.579 → ‏٧٩٬٨٦٨ US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → ‏٧٧٬٧٦٩ US$high value: 0.12 → ‏٤٢٬٤٨٣ US$Integration and setuplow value: 5000 → ‏٧١٬٤٩٢ US$high value: 40000 → ‏٣٦٬٤٩٢ US$‏٦١٬٤٩٢ US$0low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/welding/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/welding/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏١٠٫٠٠ US$‏٢٠٫٠٠ US$‏٣٠٫٠٠ US$‏٤٠٫٠٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / welding hourscenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/welding/). Modelled estimate, not a f…

سنة التقاطع: الآن

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Less fume and arc exposure for the welder; fume extraction is still needed.
الجودة
Repeatable beads on repeat parts; fixturing tolerance decides quality.
المرونة
Skilled welders handle the one-offs robots never will.
Edge cases
Poor part fit-up and short runs.
Customer experience
Shorter lead times on repeat orders.
Jobs and redeployment
Welder shortages are the usual reason; welders become programmers and inspectors.
التنظيم
Machinery safety rules; welding codes still require qualified procedures.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Cobot Welder starting price $105,000 (complete system incl. UR8 Long, power source, torch, cart, software); "most shops see 2-4x the output" Hirebotics, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Cobot welding price breakdown: integration/commissioning $15,000-$40,000; base system 50-60% of total investment; maintenance 3-5% per year THG Automation (integrator), 2026 · vendor
  3. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  4. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  5. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  6. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013