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Roboter oder Mensch?

Security patrol

Security guard on patrol vs Autonomous patrol robot (MaaS)

Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten. Methodik · Trefferbilanz

Mensch · Pro Jahr228.704 $Guard on site
Roboter · Pro Jahr151.754 $Patrol robot as a service
Amortisation0 Monate
Jahr der KostenwendebereitsBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

Vereinigte Staaten · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

Mit eigenen Zahlen rechnen

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

Arbeitsmenge
Annahme

Patrol hours needed per day (24 = round the clock).

Annahme

Operating hours per day.

Annahme

Days per month (every day).

Annahme

Active months per year.

Personal
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 33-9032.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Annahme

One guard-hour covers one patrol-hour.

Roboter
Annahme

One robot-hour covers one patrol-hour of a defined route (outdoor lots, perimeters).

Knightscope

Midpoint of Knightscope's marketed $6-$12 per robot-hour on an annual 24/7 contract.

Annahme

Site survey, connectivity and alarm-centre integration.

Annahme

Contract length in years.

Annahme

Share of hours the robot patrols (charging is scheduled).

Annahme

Hours lost to faults, covered by a guard.

Annahme

Share of guard hours spent on things a patrol robot cannot do: responding, access control, talking to people. A person stays on call for these.

Annahme

Remote-monitoring minutes per robot-hour (watching alerts, often shared across sites).

Annahme

Included in the contract.

Annahme

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanzen
Annahme

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Annahme

Years in the NPV comparison.

Annahme

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Annahme

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Annahme

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Ergebnisse

OptionPro MonatPro JahrPer unit (patrol hour)EinmalkostenAmortisationBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Mensch Guard on site Vergleichsbasis 19.059 $228.704 $26,12 $— — — —
Roboter Patrol robot as a service 12.646 $151.754 $17,33 $3.000 $ 0.5 Monate 1 %
Utilisation 72 %
 362.527 $

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Patrol robot as a service5-year NPV vs baseline: Patrol robot as a serviceWork that stays humanlow value: 0.15 → 474.997 $high value: 0.6 → 221.940 $Workloadlow value: 8 → 118.842 $high value: 24 → 362.527 $Hourly wagelow value: 14.624000000000002 → 247.322 $high value: 21.936 → 477.732 $Supervisionlow value: 2 → 406.667 $high value: 20 → 208.037 $Subscription per robot-hourlow value: 6 → 432.694 $high value: 12 → 292.361 $Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → 302.063 $high value: 1.579 → 422.992 $Work lost to failureslow value: 0 → 382.390 $high value: 0.1 → 316.180 $Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → 391.318 $high value: 0.12 → 328.427 $Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → 341.663 $high value: 0.0636 → 384.192 $362.527 $low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/security-patrol/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten.

ChartPersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: schneller Fortschritt), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: langsamer Fortschritt). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/security-patrol/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 $10,00 $20,00 $30,00 $2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / patrol hourscenario rangePersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/security-patrol/). Modelled estimate,…

Jahr der Kostenwende: bereits

What the spreadsheet misses

Sicherheit
A robot cannot intervene, give first aid or de-escalate. It detects and reports; someone still responds.
Qualität
Robots never skip a round and record everything; guards notice context.
Flexibilität
Guards do access control, deliveries, lost children. Robots patrol.
Edge cases
Stairs, rain, crowds and vandalism are known problems. One famously drove into a fountain.
Customer experience
Visible deterrence cuts both ways: some visitors like it, some find it creepy.
Jobs and redeployment
In practice robots replace overnight rounds on big lots; people move to response and monitoring.
Regulierung
Licensing applies to guards, not robots; recording and privacy law applies to robot cameras (GDPR in the EU/UK).

Siehe auch

Quellen auf dieser Seite

Hinweise und Quellen sind auf Englisch; maßgeblich ist die englische Fassung.

  1. Knightscope robots: effective $6-$12 per hour on an annual 24/7 Machine-as-a-Service contract Knightscope, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013