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روبوت أم إنسان؟

Security patrol

Security guard on patrol vs Autonomous patrol robot (MaaS)

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏٢٢٨٬٧٠٤ US$Guard on site
روبوت · سنويًا‏١٥١٬٧٥٤ US$Patrol robot as a service
فترة الاسترداد0 أشهر
سنة التقاطعالآنBase-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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حجم العمل
افتراض

Patrol hours needed per day (24 = round the clock).

افتراض

Operating hours per day.

افتراض

Days per month (every day).

افتراض

Active months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 33-9032.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

One guard-hour covers one patrol-hour.

الروبوت
افتراض

One robot-hour covers one patrol-hour of a defined route (outdoor lots, perimeters).

Knightscope

Midpoint of Knightscope's marketed $6-$12 per robot-hour on an annual 24/7 contract.

افتراض

Site survey, connectivity and alarm-centre integration.

افتراض

Contract length in years.

افتراض

Share of hours the robot patrols (charging is scheduled).

افتراض

Hours lost to faults, covered by a guard.

افتراض

Share of guard hours spent on things a patrol robot cannot do: responding, access control, talking to people. A person stays on call for these.

افتراض

Remote-monitoring minutes per robot-hour (watching alerts, often shared across sites).

افتراض

Included in the contract.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (patrol hour)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Guard on site خط الأساس ‏١٩٬٠٥٩ US$‏٢٢٨٬٧٠٤ US$‏٢٦٫١٢ US$— — — —
روبوت Patrol robot as a service ‏١٢٬٦٤٦ US$‏١٥١٬٧٥٤ US$‏١٧٫٣٣ US$‏٣٬٠٠٠ US$ 0.5 أشهر ١٪؜
Utilisation ٧٢٪؜
 ‏٣٦٢٬٥٢٧ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Patrol robot as a service5-year NPV vs baseline: Patrol robot as a serviceWork that stays humanlow value: 0.15 → ‏٤٧٤٬٩٩٧ US$high value: 0.6 → ‏٢٢١٬٩٤٠ US$Workloadlow value: 8 → ‏١١٨٬٨٤٢ US$high value: 24 → ‏٣٦٢٬٥٢٧ US$Hourly wagelow value: 14.624000000000002 → ‏٢٤٧٬٣٢٢ US$high value: 21.936 → ‏٤٧٧٬٧٣٢ US$Supervisionlow value: 2 → ‏٤٠٦٬٦٦٧ US$high value: 20 → ‏٢٠٨٬٠٣٧ US$Subscription per robot-hourlow value: 6 → ‏٤٣٢٬٦٩٤ US$high value: 12 → ‏٢٩٢٬٣٦١ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ‏٣٠٢٬٠٦٣ US$high value: 1.579 → ‏٤٢٢٬٩٩٢ US$Work lost to failureslow value: 0 → ‏٣٨٢٬٣٩٠ US$high value: 0.1 → ‏٣١٦٬١٨٠ US$Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → ‏٣٩١٬٣١٨ US$high value: 0.12 → ‏٣٢٨٬٤٢٧ US$Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → ‏٣٤١٬٦٦٣ US$high value: 0.0636 → ‏٣٨٤٬١٩٢ US$‏٣٦٢٬٥٢٧ US$low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/security-patrol/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/security-patrol/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏١٠٫٠٠ US$‏٢٠٫٠٠ US$‏٣٠٫٠٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / patrol hourscenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/security-patrol/). Modelled estimate,…

سنة التقاطع: الآن

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
A robot cannot intervene, give first aid or de-escalate. It detects and reports; someone still responds.
الجودة
Robots never skip a round and record everything; guards notice context.
المرونة
Guards do access control, deliveries, lost children. Robots patrol.
Edge cases
Stairs, rain, crowds and vandalism are known problems. One famously drove into a fountain.
Customer experience
Visible deterrence cuts both ways: some visitors like it, some find it creepy.
Jobs and redeployment
In practice robots replace overnight rounds on big lots; people move to response and monitoring.
التنظيم
Licensing applies to guards, not robots; recording and privacy law applies to robot cameras (GDPR in the EU/UK).

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Knightscope robots: effective $6-$12 per hour on an annual 24/7 Machine-as-a-Service contract Knightscope, 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013