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Roboter oder Mensch?

Crop spraying

Ground rig or crop duster (custom hire) vs Spray drone (hire, or buy and fly)

Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten. Methodik · Trefferbilanz

Mensch · Pro Jahr17.400 $Ground rig (custom hire)
Roboter · Pro Jahr22.121 $Buy a spray drone and fly it
Amortisation62 Monate
Jahr der Kostenwendenach 2035 (2031–nach 2035)Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers people are clearly cheaper. The robot would sit idle most of the time; it pays off at higher volume or longer hours. Payback is longer than three years, which is longer than many robot contracts and some robot companies.

Vereinigte Staaten · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

Mit eigenen Zahlen rechnen

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

Arbeitsmenge
Annahme

Acres sprayed per year (all passes).

Annahme

Flying hours per spray day.

Annahme

Spray days per month, averaged.

Annahme

Volume is annual.

Personal
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 45-2091.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

Preise
extension.iastate.edu

Iowa 2025 average custom rate, self-propelled ground broadcast spraying ($5-$15).

extension.iastate.edu

Iowa 2025 average custom aerial application ($9-$16).

American Spray Drone Coalition

US average custom drone spray rate, 2025 (down from $21 in 2024).

Roboter
Annahme

Acres per drone-hour in practice, including refills and moves. Spec sheets quote more.

Southeast Drone Solutions (dealer)

DJI Agras T50 spray-ready package (aircraft alone from $19,999).

Annahme

Extra batteries, generator, mixing trailer, certification (FAA Part 137 in the US) and insurance.

Annahme

Yearly repairs and battery replacement, share of price.

Annahme

Useful life in years.

Annahme

Share of spray hours flyable (wind, rain).

Annahme

Work lost to faults.

Annahme

Acres a drone cannot do well (very large flat fields at high volume rates).

Annahme

Crew minutes per drone-hour: pilot plus a mixer/visual observer.

Annahme

Generator or grid energy per drone-hour (kWh).

Annahme

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

Finanzen
Annahme

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

Annahme

Years in the NPV comparison.

Annahme

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

Annahme

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

Annahme

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

Ergebnisse

OptionPro MonatPro JahrPer unit (acre)EinmalkostenAmortisationBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
Mensch Ground rig (custom hire) Vergleichsbasis 1.450 $17.400 $8,70 $— — — —
Mensch Crop duster (custom hire) 1.975 $23.700 $11,85 $— nie — -27.192 $
Roboter Drone spraying service 2.131 $25.570 $12,78 $— nie — -33.565 $
Roboter Buy a spray drone and fly it 1.843 $22.121 $11,06 $43.500 $ 62 Monate 16 %
Utilisation 11 %
 -14.154 $

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a spray drone and fly it5-year NPV vs baseline: Buy a spray drone and fly itWorkloadlow value: 300 → -56.087 $high value: 10000 → 183.176 $Ground riglow value: 5 → -43.587 $high value: 15 → 35.961 $Robot purchase pricelow value: 19999 → 4.644 $high value: 40000 → -28.048 $Robot output per hourlow value: 12 → -35.685 $high value: 40 → -6.701 $Useful life or contractlow value: 3 → -24.864 $high value: 6 → -3.590 $Integration and setuplow value: 5000 → -7.154 $high value: 25000 → -27.154 $Maintenance per yearlow value: 0.05 → -7.681 $high value: 0.2 → -27.100 $Supervisionlow value: 60 → -4.451 $high value: 180 → -23.857 $Work that stays humanlow value: 0 → -11.558 $high value: 0.3 → -27.136 $-14.154 $low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/ag-spraying/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Modellschätzungen von Whirrwork, keine Fakten.

ChartPersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: schneller Fortschritt), Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Roboter: langsamer Fortschritt). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/ag-spraying/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.0,00 $2,50 $5,00 $7,50 $10,00 $2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / acrescenario rangePersonalkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Basis)Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Roboterkosten pro Einheit (Robote…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/ag-spraying/). Modelled estimate, not…

Jahr der Kostenwende: nach 2035 (2031–nach 2035)

What the spreadsheet misses

Sicherheit
No crushed crop or soil compaction; operators are near the chemical when mixing, as with any method.
Qualität
Good on small, wet or irregular fields; ground rigs win on huge flat fields at high water volumes.
Flexibilität
Drones fly when fields are too wet for a rig.
Edge cases
Drift, label rates and tank size limit what a drone can apply.
Customer experience
Neighbours notice less noise than a crop duster.
Jobs and redeployment
Creates operator jobs; custom applicators often add drones to their fleets.
Regulierung
US needs FAA Part 107 plus Part 137 and a 44807 exemption for heavy drones, and state pesticide licences; other countries differ.

Siehe auch

Quellen auf dieser Seite

Hinweise und Quellen sind auf Englisch; maßgeblich ist die englische Fassung.

  1. 2025 Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey: self-propelled ground broadcast spraying $8.70/acre average; aerial application $11.85/acre average (materials excluded) Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, 2025
  2. 2025 ASDC Impact Survey: US average custom drone spray rate $13/acre (down from $21 in 2024) American Spray Drone Coalition, 2026-01
  3. DJI Agras T50 from $19,999; spray-ready package $31,500 Southeast Drone Solutions (dealer), 2026-10 · vendor
  4. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  5. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  6. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  7. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  8. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  9. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  10. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  11. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  12. Outsourced drone spraying in Brazil: BRL 60-150 per hectare Planon Ambiental, 2026-10 · vendor
  13. Drone fumigation in Mexico: MXN 300-800 per hectare, application only EAVision México, 2026-10 · vendor
  14. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  15. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  16. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013