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روبوت أم إنسان؟

Warehouse order picking (AMR-assisted)

Picker walking with a cart vs Collaborative picking AMRs (people still pick)

تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق. المنهجية · سجل التوقعات

إنسان · سنويًا‏٣٣٨٬٥٨٧ US$Manual cart picking
روبوت · سنويًا‏٣٧١٬٣٣٢ US$AMRs as a service
فترة الاستردادأبدًا
سنة التقاطع2029 (2028–بعد 2035)Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers it is close: decide on the things that are not cost. Even running flat out, one robot would not displace enough work to pay for itself.

الولايات المتحدة · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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حجم العمل
افتراض

Order lines picked per day.

افتراض

Operating hours per day (two shifts).

افتراض

Operating days per month.

افتراض

Active months per year.

العمالة
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 53-7065.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

افتراض

Picks per hour for a person walking a cart. Varies hugely with order profile; use your own WMS figure.

الروبوت
افتراض

Picks per robot-hour. Collaborative AMRs do the walking; people still do the picking, so this is robot throughput, not autonomy.

CIVL

Reported Locus Robotics RaaS price per robot per month.

افتراض

WMS integration, mapping and change management for a first site. Integration often costs more than the robots.

افتراض

Contract or useful life in years.

افتراض

Share of the shift each robot is available.

افتراض

Share of robot work lost to faults.

افتراض

Share of picks that stay manual (oversize, hazmat, rush orders).

افتراض

Picker minutes per robot-hour. In assisted picking a person meets the robot at each pick face, so this is large by design.

افتراض

kWh per robot-hour.

افتراض

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

التمويل
افتراض

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

افتراض

Years in the NPV comparison.

افتراض

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

افتراض

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

افتراض

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

النتائج

الخيارشهريًاسنويًاPer unit (pick)التكلفة الأوليةفترة الاستردادBreak-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
إنسان Manual cart picking خط الأساس ‏٢٨٬٢١٦ US$‏٣٣٨٬٥٨٧ US$‏٠٫٣٢١ US$— — — —
روبوت AMRs as a service
Robots needed: 5
 ‏٣٠٬٩٤٤ US$‏٣٧١٬٣٣٢ US$‏٠٫٣٥٢ US$‏٣٠٬٠٠٠ US$ أبدًا not reachable
Utilisation ٨٣٪؜
 ؜-‏١٠٠٬٨٥٤ US$

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: AMRs as a service5-year NPV vs baseline: AMRs as a serviceRobot output per hourlow value: 35 → ؜-‏١٬٠٤٥٬١٤٩ US$high value: 90 → ‏٣٩٩٬٠٠٠ US$Human output per hourlow value: 50 → ‏٦٩٧٬١٨٨ US$high value: 150 → ؜-‏٧٢١٬٥٥٣ US$Supervisionlow value: 20 → ‏٢٠٠٬٧٥٠ US$high value: 45 → ؜-‏٥٥٣٬٢٥٨ US$Subscription per robot per mo…low value: 1500 → ‏٢٢٬٤٤٣ US$high value: 3000 → ؜-‏٣٤٧٬٤٤٦ US$Hourly wagelow value: 14.36 → ؜-‏١٨٥٬٩٠٦ US$high value: 21.54 → ؜-‏١٥٬٨٠١ US$Work lost to failureslow value: 0 → ؜-‏٧٣٬٧٠٩ US$high value: 0.08 → ؜-‏١٨٢٬٢٨٦ US$Uptimelow value: 0.8 → ؜-‏١٠٠٬٨٥٤ US$high value: 0.97 → ؜-‏٢٬٢١٧ US$Integration and setuplow value: 10000 → ؜-‏٨٠٬٨٥٤ US$high value: 100000 → ؜-‏١٧٠٬٨٥٤ US$Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → ؜-‏١٤٥٬٤٩٢ US$high value: 1.579 → ؜-‏٥٦٬٢١٥ US$؜-‏١٠٠٬٨٥٤ US$low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/warehouse-picking/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. تقديرات من نموذج Whirrwork، وليست حقائق.

Chartتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم سريع), تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات: تقدّم بطيء). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/warehouse-picking/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.‏٠٫٠٠ US$‏٠٫١٠ US$‏٠٫٢٠ US$‏٠٫٣٠ US$2026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / pickscenario rangeتكلفة الإنسان لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الأساسي)تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…تكلفة الروبوت لكل وحدة (الروبوتات…Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/warehouse-picking/). Modelled estimat…

سنة التقاطع: 2029 (2028–بعد 2035)

What the spreadsheet misses

السلامة
Less walking and pushing; mixed robot and forklift traffic needs rules.
الجودة
Fewer mis-picks are commonly reported because the robot screen shows the next pick; measure yours.
المرونة
RaaS lets you add robots for peak and hand them back, which is the main argument for it.
Edge cases
Oversize items, very low volumes and constantly changing slotting reduce the benefit.
Customer experience
Invisible to customers except via speed and accuracy.
Jobs and redeployment
Assisted picking keeps people picking; it changes the job (less walking) more than it removes it.
التنظيم
Workplace safety rules for mobile robots (ISO 3691-4 in many markets) apply to the vendor and the site.

ذو صلة

مصادر هذه الصفحة

الملاحظات والمصادر بالإنجليزية، والنص الإنجليزي هو المرجع.

  1. Locus Robotics offers warehouse robots for $2,000 per month as a service CIVL, 2026-10
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013