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机器人还是人工？

Restaurant food running

Food runner / busser vs Serving robot (staff load and hand over)

Whirrwork 模型估算，并非事实。 方法说明 · 预测记录

人工 · 每年US$84,059Food runner
机器人 · 每年US$46,833Lease a serving robot
回收期0 个月
成本交叉年份已经Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

美国 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

用你自己的数字计算

Change anything. Results update as you type and stay in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. Works offline after your first visit.

工作量
假设

Runner hours needed per day (lunch and dinner).

假设

Opening hours per day.

假设

Open days per month.

假设

Months per year.

人员
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 35-9011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

假设

One runner-hour.

机器人
假设

Share of a runner-hour of work one robot-hour replaces (it carries; servers still serve).

RobotLAB (reseller)

Pudu BellaBot purchase.

RobotLAB (reseller)

BellaBot RaaS lease per month.

假设

Mapping the dining room and staff training.

假设

Yearly maintenance share of price.

假设

Useful life in years.

假设

Availability.

假设

Work lost to faults.

假设

Running the robot cannot do: stairs, terraces, crowded floors, big parties.

假设

Staff minutes per robot-hour beyond normal serving (loading, clearing paths).

假设

kWh per robot-hour.

假设

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

资金
假设

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

假设

Years in the NPV comparison.

假设

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

假设

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

假设

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

结果

方案每月每年Per unit (runner hour)前期投入回收期Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
人工 Food runner 比较基准 US$7,005US$84,059US$23.35— — — —
机器人 Buy a serving robot
Robots needed: 2
 US$3,935US$47,222US$13.12US$29,500 7.7 个月 14%
Utilisation 65%
 US$168,279
机器人 Lease a serving robot
Robots needed: 2
 US$3,903US$46,833US$13.01US$500 0.2 个月 14%
Utilisation 65%
 US$169,378

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease a serving robot5-year NPV vs baseline: Lease a serving robotWorkloadlow value: 4 → US$63,417high value: 24 → US$423,343Work that stays humanlow value: 0.1 → US$229,441high value: 0.5 → US$129,486Robot output vs a personlow value: 0.3 → US$119,880high value: 0.8 → US$206,045Hourly wagelow value: 13.072000000000001 → US$127,271high value: 19.608 → US$211,484Employer on-cost multiplierlow value: 1.2790000000000001 → US$147,279high value: 1.579 → US$191,477Subscription per robot per mo…low value: 409 → US$169,378high value: 800 → US$130,811Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$182,602high value: 0.12 → US$153,705Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → US$161,752high value: 0.0636 → US$177,296Electricity price per kWhlow value: 0.08 → US$169,523high value: 0.3 → US$169,067US$169,378low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/food-runner/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork 模型估算，并非事实。

Chart单位人工成本 (基准), 单位机器人成本 (基准), 单位机器人成本 (机器人进步快), 单位机器人成本 (机器人进步慢). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/food-runner/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$10.00US$20.002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / runner hourscenario range单位人工成本 (基准)单位机器人成本 (基准)单位机器人成本 (机器人进步快)单位机器人成本 (机器人进步慢)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/food-runner/). Modelled estimate, not…

成本交叉年份: 已经

What the spreadsheet misses

安全
Fewer heavy trays carried across a busy floor; robots are a trip hazard for guests who are not looking.
质量
Hot food arrives at robot speed, which is not fast.
灵活性
A runner also refills water, clears and charms.
Edge cases
Narrow aisles, steps, outdoor seating.
Customer experience
Novelty helps family restaurants and hurts fine dining.
Jobs and redeployment
Typical use is fewer runner shifts and servers spending more time at tables; tipped wages make the US maths odd (the BLS median includes tipped-wage states).
法规
None specific; food-hygiene rules apply to cleaning the trays.

相关内容

本页来源

说明和来源为英文；以英文版为准。

  1. Pudu BellaBot: buy $14,500; RaaS lease $409/month RobotLAB (reseller), 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. UK serving robot rental £490-£590/month on a 24-month term incl. maintenance Hutech Robotics, 2026-10 · vendor
  7. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  8. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  9. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  10. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  11. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  12. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  13. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013