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로봇일까, 사람일까?

Wind turbine blade inspection

Rope-access blade inspection vs Drone blade inspection

Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다. 방법론 · 예측 검증 기록

사람 · 연간US$112,500Rope access
로봇 · 연간US$31,500Drone inspection
투자 회수 기간immediate
비용 역전 연도이미Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

미국 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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작업량
가정

Turbines inspected per year.

가정

Hours per day.

가정

Days per month.

가정

Months per year.

인력
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 49-9052.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

가격
산출값 skyvisor.ai

Midpoint of rope-access inspection $1,500-$3,000 per turbine (drone software vendor's figures).

산출값 skyvisor.ai

Midpoint of drone inspection $300-$600 per turbine (same source). French farm campaigns: €350-€700.

로봇
가정

Share of turbines needing rope access anyway (repairs, lightning-protection tests).

가정

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

자금
가정

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

가정

Years in the NPV comparison.

가정

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

가정

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

가정

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

결과

옵션월간연간Per unit (turbine)초기 비용투자 회수 기간Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
사람 Rope access 비교 기준 US$9,375US$112,500US$2,250— — — —
로봇 Drone inspection US$2,625US$31,500US$630— immediate — US$351,010

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone inspection5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone inspectionWorkloadlow value: 5 → US$35,101high value: 500 → US$3,510,098Rope accesslow value: 1500 → US$205,336high value: 5000 → US$885,146Drone inspectionlow value: 300 → US$379,680high value: 1500 → US$150,317Work that stays humanlow value: 0.03 → US$378,311high value: 0.3 → US$273,008Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$377,787high value: 0.12 → US$319,238Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → US$342,516high value: 0.0636 → US$359,829US$351,0100low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/wind-turbine-inspection/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다.

Chart단위당 인건비 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/wind-turbine-inspection/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$1,000US$2,0002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / turbinescenario range단위당 인건비 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/wind-turbine-inspection/). Modelled e…

비용 역전 연도: 이미

What the spreadsheet misses

안전
Fewer technicians hanging off 80-metre blades.
품질
High-resolution images enable year-on-year damage tracking.
유연성
Rope teams repair leading-edge erosion on the same visit.
Edge cases
Offshore weather windows; wind above limits grounds drones too.
Customer experience
Less turbine downtime per inspection is the operator's main gain.
Jobs and redeployment
Technicians move to repair, which drones flag more of.
규제
Aviation rules for drones; offshore permits.

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  1. Wind turbine inspection costs: rope access $1,500-$3,000 per turbine vs drone $300-$600 SkyVisor (drone inspection software company), 2026-10 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013