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로봇일까, 사람일까?

Solar farm inspection

Manual inspection (handheld thermal, walking rows) vs Drone thermography

Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다. 방법론 · 예측 검증 기록

사람 · 연간US$500,000Manual inspection
로봇 · 연간US$238,750Drone thermography
투자 회수 기간immediate
비용 역전 연도이미Base-case year (earliest to latest across scenarios)

On these numbers the robot option is clearly cheaper.

미국 · USD · BLS OEWS May 2025 national medians by SOC occupation

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작업량
가정

MW of plant inspected per year.

가정

Hours per day.

가정

Days per month.

가정

Months per year.

인력
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

BLS OEWS May 2025 national median hourly wage, SOC 47-4011.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wages and salaries were 70.0% of total employer compensation cost for private industry workers in June 2026 (ECEC), so total cost = wage / 0.70.

ilostat.ilo.org

Nominal 4.4% a year, 2015-2025 (ILOSTAT hourly earnings).

가격
산출값 AeroDeploy (drone inspection company)

Midpoint of $0.008-$0.012 per watt for manual inspection = $10,000 per MW (drone company's figures).

산출값 AeroDeploy (drone inspection company)

Midpoint of $0.003-$0.006 per watt for drone inspection = $4,500 per MW (same source). A French operator publishes €150-€400 per MWp, far lower.

로봇
가정

Share needing a person on site anyway (string-level electrical tests).

가정

Electricity price per kWh (USD). Check your bill; energy is rarely a big line.

자금
가정

Annual financing / discount rate. Nobody publishes yours; 8% is a round mid-2026 commercial borrowing guess.

가정

Years in the NPV comparison.

가정

Share of a human service price that is labour (rises with wages). Used to escalate and to adjust US service prices to other countries.

가정

Share of a robot service price that is labour (pilot, technician). The rest is equipment, which learning curves make cheaper.

가정

Share of a lease or RaaS fee that pays for hardware (learns down). The rest is service and support (moves with wages).

Download these results (CSV)

결과

옵션월간연간Per unit (MW)초기 비용투자 회수 기간Break-even utilisation5-year NPV vs baseline
사람 Manual inspection 비교 기준 US$41,667US$500,000US$10,000— — — —
로봇 Drone thermography US$19,896US$238,750US$4,775— immediate — US$1,142,327

What moves the answer most

Each bar shows the 5-year NPV of the best robot option when one input moves to the low or high end of its range, with the rest held at your values.

5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone thermography5-year NPV vs baseline: Drone thermographyWorkloadlow value: 5 → US$114,233high value: 500 → US$11,423,266Drone thermographylow value: 300 → US$1,989,695high value: 6000 → US$839,695Manual inspectionlow value: 8000 → US$732,282high value: 12000 → US$1,552,371Work that stays humanlow value: 0 → US$1,202,449high value: 0.2 → US$961,959Financing and discount ratelow value: 0.05 → US$1,229,813high value: 0.12 → US$1,038,545Wage growth per yearlow value: 0.0236 → US$1,110,142high value: 0.0636 → US$1,175,745US$1,142,3270low valuehigh valueSource: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/solar-farm-inspection/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.

Cost per unit to 2035

Real terms (today's money). Robot hardware follows Wright's law; wages follow each country's history. Shaded band: robots-slow to robots-fast scenarios. Whirrwork의 모델 추정치이며 사실이 아닙니다.

Chart단위당 인건비 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (기준), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름), 단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림). Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/solar-farm-inspection/). Modelled estimate, not a fact.US$0.00US$2,500US$5,000US$7,500US$10,0002026202720282029203020312032203320342035USD / MWscenario range단위당 인건비 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (기준)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 빠름)단위당 로봇 비용 (로봇 발전 느림)Source: Whirrwork Robot-or-Human model v1.0.0 (whirrwork.com/tools/robot-vs-human/solar-farm-inspection/). Modelled est…

비용 역전 연도: 이미

What the spreadsheet misses

안전
Less walking among live DC strings in the heat.
품질
Full-coverage thermal maps to IEC 62446-3 are hard to match on foot.
유연성
Technicians fix connectors as they go.
Edge cases
Irradiance has to be high enough for useful thermal images: weather dictates the schedule.
Customer experience
Asset owners get comparable reports year on year.
Jobs and redeployment
O&M crews spend more time fixing, less finding.
규제
Drone rules near substations and airports.

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참고 사항과 출처는 영어로 제공되며 영어판이 기준입니다.

  1. Drone inspection cost vs traditional methods: tower climb $800-$1,500 vs drone $350-$600; roof ladder $300-$800 vs drone $150-$400; solar manual $0.008-$0.012/W vs drone $0.003-$0.006/W AeroDeploy (drone inspection company), 2026 · vendor
  2. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (median hourly wage by occupation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025-05
  3. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026: wages and salaries 70.0% of private-industry compensation (series CMU2020000000000P) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-06
  4. Mean nominal hourly earnings of employees by sex and occupation (ISCO-08), DF_EAR_EHRA_SEX_OCU_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), from national labour force and earnings surveys, 2025
  5. Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev): Germany 2022-2025, total labour cost vs wages and salaries per hour Eurostat, 2025
  6. Rates and thresholds for employers 2025 to 2026 (employer Class 1 NIC 15% above £5,000) HM Revenue & Customs, 2025-04-06
  7. 令和6年賃金構造基本統計調査 (Basic Survey on Wage Structure 2024), table 1 by occupation Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (via e-Stat), 2024-06
  8. Average monthly earnings of employees by sex and economic activity, DF_EAR_EMTA_SEX_ECO_CUR_NB ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization), 2022
  9. Average annual wage of employed persons in urban units in 2024 (by position and by region) National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025-05-20
  10. Euro foreign exchange reference rates (cross rates to USD), via Frankfurter European Central Bank, 2026-10-23
  11. Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), 122-128 Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 1936
  12. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e52669 (62 technologies; Wright's law among the best hindcasters; errors grow with horizon) PLoS ONE, 2013